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Poland and Lithuania have backed Ukraine in urging Western powers to immediately impose sanctions on Russia over its military buildup along the Ukrainian border.

As fears mount of a Russian invasion, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday “called upon the international community to step up sanctions on the Russian Federation over its ongoing aggression against Ukraine.”

In a statement issued after the leaders met in Ukraine’s Carpathian Mountains, they “once again urged the Kremlin to de-escalate the situation by withdrawing its troops from the Ukrainian borders.”

Despite U.S. President Joe Biden warning Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month that Russia would pay a “terrible price” in the event it invades Ukraine, the forward-deployment of hundreds of tanks, howitzers, self-propelled artillery and tens of thousands of troops has not been reversed, say Western security sources.

U.S. and Western officials fear Putin is contemplating a replay of 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea and used armed proxies to seize a large part of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. The White House believes it has only a “four-week window” to stave off a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, dismissed reports Monday of the West having a “four-week window” to stop an invasion. “There was nothing to defend [Ukraine] from,” he said.

But Russian officials have said relations with NATO were reaching a “moment of truth” and have called on the West to respond to their demands that the Western alliance bar former Soviet states such as Ukraine from joining the bloc.

Zelenskiy’s repeated calls for “powerful preventative actions, powerful serious sanctions to exclude any thought about escalation” so far have been ignored by the U.S. and NATO’s Western European members. But they have continued their drumbeat of warnings of severe economic penalties if Russia invades Ukraine.

Speaking Tuesday to reporters on a conference call, Assistant Secretary of State Karen Donfried, who for the past week has been holding talks in Moscow, Kyiv and Brussels, said: “The United States has been working very closely with our European counterparts on specific packages of severe consequences for Russia. Should it move forward with military escalation in Ukraine, together with our allies, we have been clear that we would respond with strong economic measures that we have not considered in the past and that would inflict significant costs on the Russian economy and financial system.”

Asked if Western powers are ready to act if there is further Russian aggression against Ukraine today, tomorrow or next week, Donfried said: “There’s clarity about what we will do.”

But current and former diplomats say while there’s broad agreement among Western powers about sanctioning Russia in the event of an incursion, there’s as yet no final accord on the details. Some European governments have less appetite than others, they say. “There is still discussion,” said a British diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “It is not all signed and sealed.”

Russia is the European Union’s fifth largest trading partner, and European assets in Russia are valued at about $350 billion.  

Much speculation on what Western powers might do has focused on whether they would cut Russia off from the SWIFT global money-transfer system, which is used by more than 11,000 banks and financial institutions to make and receive cross-border payments. Some commentators have suggested this would be a nuclear option, but others disagree, saying Russia would adapt and could use email, telex and phone calls to arrange money transfers.

“One of the things that I imagine is being considered is more restrictions on the Russian financial infrastructure, which might include SWIFT,” said Tom Keatinge, director of the Center for Financial Crime and Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute, Britain’s leading defense think tank.

“I’m not convinced it is necessarily the nuclear option,” he told VOA. “You can perfectly well do cross-border payments without using the system. I’m not saying that there wouldn’t be an impact. There would be, because it would throw a ton of grit into Russia’s ability to trade internationally. But I’m not convinced it is the sort of threat that’s going to make Vladimir Putin quake in his boots.”

When disconnecting Russia from SWIFT was first broached in 2014, the impact would have been greater, Keatinge explained. But since then, Russia has clearly given much thought to what workarounds it would use. And, like China, it has been developing its own financial transfer system, known as SPFS, which 400 institutions—mostly banks—are already using.

“The Russian Central Bank has for a long time been developing a playbook,” Keatinge added. Some other analysts fear unplugging Russia from SWIFT would encourage Russia and China to develop a more ubiquitous global payment system of their own.

Keatinge and others suspect potential sanctions would focus on blacklisting more Russian banks and financial institutions and making it harder for Russia to raise capital overseas. But Western countries have different pain thresholds and “the Europeans have significantly more [economically] at stake,” says Adam Smith, a former senior sanctions adviser at the U.S. Treasury Department who later served on the National Security Council during the Obama administration.

He cites the risk the Kremlin would retaliate by cutting off natural gas exports to Europe, which sources 35% of its gas supplies from Russia.

“Going after Russia, like going after China, is not the same as going after Iran,” he told VOA. “Collateral consequences would be meaningful. The question is: What degree of self-harm is the West willing to tolerate in order to give Putin a bloody nose?”
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The United States believes bilateral talks with Russia over its massive troop buildup along the Ukrainian border could start in January, the State Department’s top diplomat for Europe said Tuesday, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the U.S. and its allies for tensions in the region.

Karen Donfried, assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs, told reporters that the U.S. and Russia would agree on a specific date to begin talks on Moscow’s demands that NATO give up any military activity in Eastern Europe and Ukraine.

But she warned, “We have made clear that any dialogue must be based on reciprocity, address our concerns about Russia’s actions, and take place in full coordination with our European allies and partners.”

“Let me be clear, there will be no talks on European security without Europe,” Donfried said.

Russia has deployed 100,000 troops along its border with eastern Ukraine, according to Western estimates, after unilaterally annexing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014. The U.S. has expressed concern that Russia could invade Ukraine early next year but does not believe Putin has decided whether to launch an attack.

U.S. President Joe Biden warned Putin two weeks ago during a virtual summit that the U.S. and its allies would impose devastating economic sanctions against Russia if it invades Ukraine.

Biden has ruled out a ground deployment of U.S. troops in the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine, but Washington has been sending small arms and ammunition to the Kyiv government, along with Javelin missiles the U.S. says Ukraine should use only for defensive purposes.

Putin, speaking to a meeting of Russia’s top military leaders, blamed the West for “tensions that are building up in Europe.”

As part of the upcoming bilateral talks with the U.S., Putin is demanding that NATO, the post-World War II Western military alliance, deny possible membership to Ukraine and other former Soviet satellite countries, while curbing its military deployments in Central and Eastern Europe.

Putin said the Kremlin wants “long-term, legally binding guarantees” from the West, as opposed to “verbal assurances, words and promises” that it says it can’t trust.

The Russian leader contended that if the U.S. and NATO place missile systems in Ukraine, it will take only minutes for them to reach Moscow.

“For us, it is the most serious challenge—a challenge to our security,” he said,

“What is happening now, tensions that are building up in Europe, is [the U.S. and NATO’s] fault every step of the way,” the Russian leader said, ignoring Moscow’s takeover of Crimea.

“Russia has been forced to respond at every step,” Putin contended. “The situation kept worsening and worsening, deteriorating and deteriorating. And here we are today, in a situation when we’re forced to resolve it somehow.”

Putin said Moscow hopes for “constructive, meaningful talks with a visible end result—and within a certain time frame—that would ensure equal security for all.”

“Armed conflicts, bloodshed is not our choice, and we don’t want such developments,” Putin said. “We want to resolve issues by political and diplomatic means.”

Some material in this report came from Reuters and the Associated Press.
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The U.N. human rights office is calling on Belarus and Poland to end what it calls appalling treatment of refugees and migrants stranded along their common border and to live up to their obligations under international human rights and refugee laws.

A U.N. human rights team visited the region between November 29 and December 3 to get a firsthand view of the situation. While Polish officials met with the team, Belarusian authorities did not.

U.N. human rights spokeswoman Liz Throssell says team members were not granted access to the restricted border area. However, she says they interviewed government officials, civil society representatives and dozens of refugees and migrants who had arrived in Poland through Belarus.

Those interviewed, she says, described the dire conditions on both sides of the border.

“The majority said that, while in Belarus, they had been beaten or threatened by security forces and also alleged that the Belarusian security forces forced them to cross the border…Several interviewees said Belarusian security forces had demanded extortionate sums for food and water…They spoke about their fear, their fear about being alone in the forest, even fear of dying because of the difficult conditions there. One of the migrants said it is absolute hell for everyone,” Throssell said.

The International Organization for Migration says 21 migrants have died along the Belarus-EU border, many from hypothermia because of freezing temperatures.

The European Commission accuses Belarus of creating a crisis by luring migrants from the Middle East, Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and other countries to the capital, Minsk, with the false promise of gaining easy entry to the European Union.

Throssell says neither Belarus nor Poland wants the refugees and migrants and push them across borders. She says Poland also systematically detains those whom it has not returned to Belarus.

“Many of those interviewed said they had not been given proper physical and mental health care in detention, and had limited contact with the outside world, including with independent lawyers, human rights monitors and civil society organizations,” Throssell said. “We remind Poland that detention should be an exceptional measure of last resort, and only be used for a limited period of time, if at all.”

The U.N. human rights office is urging authorities of both countries to give human rights and humanitarian actors, as well as journalists, lawyers, and civil society representatives, access to the border areas. It is calling on them and on the EU to respect and protect the human rights of migrants in line with international law.
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In Turkey, Uyghur refugees who fled Chinese detention centers and other alleged rights abuses say they fear the Turkish government is under increased pressure to prosecute or deport activists. But as VOA’s Heather Murdock finds at one school in Istanbul, some Uyghur children say their parents sent them here to find safety, when there was no one to care for them at home.

Camera: Umut Colak
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As China’s crackdown on democratic freedoms in Hong Kong intensifies under Beijing’s so-called “National Security Law,” tens of thousands of citizens are fleeing the territory. In the first six months of the year, over 65,000 Hong Kong citizens applied to move to Britain, which controlled the territory until 1997, under a special new visa scheme. VOA’s Henry Ridgwell met one Hong Kong family who is making a new life in Britain.

Camera: Henry Ridgwell
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A Russian businessman has been extradited from Switzerland to the United States to face charges of insider trading, the Swiss justice ministry said. 

Vladislav Klyushin, who reportedly owns a media and cybersecurity business called M13 that is linked to the Kremlin, is accused of “involvement in a global scheme to trade on non-public information stolen from U.S. computer networks … between at least in or about January 2018 and September 2020,” according to a press release from the U.S. Justice Department. 

According to the company’s website, its products were used by “the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation, the Government of the Russian Federation, federal ministries and departments, regional state executive bodies, commercial companies and public organizations.” 

One of the stocks Klyushin traded using insider information was Tesla, the Justice Department said. 

Russia said the move was another example of Washington going after Russians on the world stage. 

“We are forced to state that we are dealing with another episode in Washington’s ongoing hunt for Russian citizens in third countries,” said Vladimir Khokhlov, a spokesman for the Russian embassy in Switzerland, TASS reported. 

Four other Russians are charged in the alleged scheme. 

“The integrity of our nation’s capital markets and of its computer networks are priorities for my office,” acting U.S. Attorney Nathaniel Mendell said. “Today’s charges show that we, the FBI, and our other law enforcement partners will relentlessly pursue those who hack, steal and attempt to profit from inside information, wherever they may hide.” 

Some information in this report came from Reuters. 
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Russia expelled two German diplomats on Monday in response to Germany’s expulsion of two Russian diplomats last week. 

The dispute between the two nations started when a German court said last week that Russia had ordered the assassination of a former Chechen militant Zelimkhan “Tornike” Khangoshvili in Berlin in 2019. 

A German court convicted Russian Vadim Krasikov of murder and sentenced him to life in prison, calling the slaying a “grave breach of German law and the sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Germany.”

After the conviction, Russia called the notion of Russian involvement “absurd.” 

The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the German ambassador to announce the expulsions. 

Russian officials said the move was reciprocal, the German Foreign Ministry said. 

“This move comes as no surprise, but it is completely unwarranted from the federal government’s perspective,” it said in a statement. “Today’s decision by Russia’s foreign ministry puts renewed strain on the relationship.” 

“It was noted that the Russian side categorically rejects unfounded and detached-from-reality accusations that Russian public structures are accessory to this crime,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. 

Some information in this report comes from Reuters and The Associated Press. 

 
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The White House said Monday the United States is ready to start diplomatic talks with Russia through multiple channels, but it made clear that Moscow must address Western concerns about its military buildup along the Ukrainian border.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan spoke with his counterpart, Yuri Ushakov, foreign policy adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, with the White House saying the U.S. was willing to talk directly with the Kremlin, as well as through the NATO-Russia Council and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

The White House said Sullivan told Ushakov that “any dialogue must be based on reciprocity and address our concerns about Russia’s actions.”

In a virtual summit two weeks ago, U.S. President Joe Biden warned Putin that the U.S. would impose tough economic sanctions against Russia if it invaded Ukraine. Moscow has amassed tens of thousands of troops along Ukraine’s eastern border, although Washington has indicated that it does not believe Putin has decided to launch an attack on Ukraine.

There was no immediate comment from Moscow about the Sullivan-Ushakov call.

Last week, Moscow listed security proposals it wanted to negotiate, including a pledge that NATO would give up any military activity in Eastern Europe and Ukraine. Biden has ruled out deploying U.S. ground troops if Russia invades Ukraine, but the U.S. has been shipping arms to Kyiv.

The Pentagon said that the security package includes small arms and ammunition and Javelin missiles, which the U.S. says can be used anywhere in Ukraine but only for self-defense purposes.
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Russia has not let up with a military build-up along the border with Ukraine since U.S. President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin held a two-hour video conference earlier this month, say Western security sources.

Despite Biden warning in his talks with Putin that Russia would pay a “terrible price” in the event it invades Ukraine, the forward-deployment of hundreds of Russian tanks, howitzers, self-propelled artillery and tens of thousands of troops has not been reversed.

Two days after the presidents talked, motorized infantry units from St. Petersburg were relocated to a camp east of Kursk, 100 kilometers from the Ukraine border, according to Janes, a global open-source intelligence company based in Britain. Twenty-four hours after Biden and Putin spoke, a social-media user posted video showing Buk missile systems and armored vehicles arriving at a train station in the Russian city of Voronezh.

Russian military build-up

Some units positioned within striking distance of Ukraine over the past few weeks and months have come as far away as Siberia and the border with Mongolia, including elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army, say independent military monitors. Units from 1st Guards Tank Army, normally based in the Moscow region, have also been moved in recent weeks.

But U.S. intelligence officials, along with European security officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, say they do not believe an invasion is imminent. They say some key logistics they would expect to see are not in place yet, including more fuel and ammunition stockpiles. They calculate Russia has anything from 70,000 to 100,000 troops already deployed, but expect a combined force of around 175,000 to be amassed ahead of any incursion, if Putin decides to launch an attack on Ukraine.

European leaders have been maintaining a drumbeat of warnings to Russia. The European Union has also told the Kremlin there will be severe consequences in the event of a further military incursion into Ukraine in a rehash of 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea and Russia used proxy pro-Moscow separatists to seize a large part of the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.

Re-positioned Russian units over the past few months have been amassed around Yelnya, Voronezh and Persianovka, all within 100 to 300 kilometers of Ukraine. And elements from the 49th and 58th Armies, which moved from their bases in the Caucasus region to the Crimea earlier this year, have not been returned to their home bases, say Western military officials.

European warnings

On Sunday, Germany’s new defense minister, Christine Lambrecht, dubbed Russia “the aggressor,” adding, “we must exhaust all possibilities to stop an escalation. That also means threats of hard sanctions.

And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy repeated his call for Western powers to impose “preventive sanctions” on Russia to deter it from aggression.

“There should be powerful, serious preventive sanctions in order to exclude a scenario of [Russian] escalation in any region, because this not only concerns Ukraine,” he said.

But splits persist among Western powers over assessments of Putin’s intentions.

Last week, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi downplayed the risk of Russian military action, citing the video call between Putin and Biden as demonstrating the Kremlin wants to explore diplomacy and isn’t preparing “for action.”

“The fact that there was this call, the fact that Putin sought out Biden by phone shows that he wants to be part of the decision-making process,” Draghi told Italian lawmakers.

Russian security proposal

Italian officials fear the talk about an impending war risks taking on a life of its own, impacting and shaping the behavior of Russia and the United States. They also point to the draft security treaties Russia presented to the U.S. last week as indicating a willingness for further talks.  

The draft treaties outline an expansive set of “security guarantees” the Kremlin is seeking, including a ban on any further expansion eastwards of NATO and a commitment by the alliance to refrain from deploying additional troops to countries that did not already have NATO forces present before 1997, including Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Baltic states and several other former Soviet republics.

While the United States and its NATO allies have said they are willing to enter talks with Russia, if the Kremlin draws down troop levels along its border with Ukraine, Western diplomats say there are no prospects that the Russian proposals are acceptable in their present form.  

“We are clear that any dialogue with Russia would have to proceed on the basis of reciprocity, address NATO’s concerns about Russia’s actions, be based on the core principles and foundational documents of European security, and take place in consultation with NATO’s European Partners,” NATO said in a statement Friday.

Some observers are skeptical that Putin has any intentions of backing off his maximalist demands and suspect he will continue with what they see as “coercive diplomacy,” using the threat of war to keep the West and Ukraine on tenterhooks.

“Putin is not threatened by NATO expansion,” tweeted Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Moscow.

“Mighty Russia is not threatened by NATO expansion. NATO has never and will never attack Russia. Putin has reinvented this so-called threat to justify his latest coercive diplomacy… and maybe escalated military intervention in Ukraine,” he added.

But Fyodor Lukyanov, a Russian foreign policy expert, says the Kremlin has reached “the point where the long-standing controversy over NATO enlargement must somehow be resolved” and is willing to raise the geo-political stakes with the West until there’s a resolution to its long-standing objection to the Western alliance creeping closer to Russia’s borders.

Putin is determined at the very least to engineer “a radical revision” requiring an acceptance of his red lines, which include the ‘Finlandization’ of Ukraine, a reference to the neutrality Moscow imposed on neighboring Finland after World War II.

Writing in the magazine Russia in Global Affairs, Lukyanov said: “The European idea after the end of the Cold War that any country should just be allowed to do whatever it wants, regardless of its location, is historically new.” And the Kremlin fears Ukraine “moving inexorably toward the West,” he says.
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