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North Korea’s recent Olympic peace offensive has reduced talk that the U.S. is preparing to give Pyongyang a “bloody nose” the next time it is provoked. But the controversial U.S. strategy to respond to continued North Korean missile or nuclear tests with a limited military strike reportedly remains an option under consideration.

In the last year tensions between North Korea and the United States have escalated over Pyongyang’s efforts to develop a nuclear-tipped missile capable of hitting the United States.

But North Korea’s agreement in January to send a large delegation of athletes, supporters and artists to the PyeongChang Olympics in South Korea has restarted an inter-Korean dialogue and reduced the possibility that Pyongyang will conduct another weapons test, at least until after the end of the games. The U.S. also agreed to postpone joint military exercises with South Korea until after the Olympics to accommodate the North’s peaceful participation.

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who will lead the U.S. Olympic delegation in South Korea, is not expected to engage with the North Korean delegation.  Instead, a White House official said Tuesday, Pence will try to counter Pyongyang’s propaganda campaign seeking to present itself as a cooperative and non-threatening state.

There has been speculation that South Korean President Moon Jae–in will push for the continued suspension of the joint drills if North Korea agrees to enter denuclearization talks.  But barring some diplomatic breakthrough, it is likely that Pyongyang will resume ballistic missiles and nuclear testing later this year.

“Bloody Nose” options

According to the Wall Street Journal the administration of President Donald Trump has been debating the idea of responding to the next provocation with a limited attack on a North Korean missile or nuclear facility.  Such a surgical strike, supporters say, would damage Pyongyang’s weapons capabilities and intensify pressure on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to agree to denuclearization talks.

Targeting a missile test site or intercepting a missile in flight is one option often discussed by military strike proponents, but critics point out that North Korea fires its ballistic missiles from mobile launchers that are hard to target in advance. Michael O’Hanlon, a foreign policy analyst at the Brookings Institution, says the odds of shooting down a North Korean missile mid-flight are probably 25 percent to 50 percent at best.

“So we could miss.  We could wind up embarrassing ourselves.  We could wind up having our interceptor land in a place it wasn’t supposed to, which is not clear we’ll be successful,” said O’Hanlon at a recent Brookings event in Washington.

Taking out a North Korean nuclear research facility is another option often debated, but O’Hanlon said it will not halt weapons development as Pyongyang has numerous nuclear sites.  Instead it could induce a massive nuclear meltdown that could put at risk the lives of millions in the region.

“You’re going to spew radioactivity over a large swath of North Korea.  I don’t think that’s a viable option for the United States on strategies or moral grounds,” he said.

There is also a high risk that North Korea would retaliate against a limited U.S. strike by attacking South Korea or Japan. A U.S. initiated conflict with North Korea could also prompt Chiina to come to the defense of its ally.

“I think [a U.S. strike] would be very reckless and I think it would actually alienate the allies and challengers in the region.  It would marginalize the U.S.  So from a U.S. foreign policy perspective, I think that is a mistaken view and has a number of risks involved,” said security analyst Daniel Pinkston, who is a lecturer in international relations with Troy University in Seoul.

Imposing a U.S. naval blockade of North Korea to enforce international sanctions has also been advocated as a possible third option, but such a move would be considered an international act of war, and possibly provoke a military confrontation with North Korean, Chinese or Russian ships that could also quickly escalate into war.

Imposing a U.S. naval blockade of North Korea to enforce international sanctions has also been advocated as a possible third option, but such a move would be considered an international act of war, and possibly provoke a military confrontation with North Korean, Chinese or Russian ships that could also quickly escalate into war.

Youmi Kim in Seoul contributed to this report.
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Syria and Russia on Wednesday accused the United States of lying about chemical weapons attacks in the Syrian conflict as a way of derailing efforts to bring an end to the fighting.

Syria’s state-run SANA news agency carried comments from a Foreign Ministry source condemning what it called “lies and allegations” by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the Interfax news agency that whenever peace efforts advance, the United States promotes “rigged, unverified reports” of chemical weapons attacks in Syria.

Those comments came a day after the United States joined its NATO allies in launching a pressure campaign against the use of chemical weapons in Syria, while singling out Russia for protecting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government.

“The recent attacks in East Ghouta raise serious concerns that Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime might be continuing its use of chemical weapons against its own people,” Tillerson said at a Paris conference hosted by Le Drian.

Tillerson said at least 20 people were killed Monday in an apparent chlorine gas attack in rebel-held East Ghouta, near Damascus.

“Whoever conducted the attacks, Russia ultimately bears responsibility for the victims in East Ghouta and countless other Syrians targeted with chemical weapons since Russia became involved in Syria,” he said.

Tillerson, along with foreign ministers from France, Germany and Turkey, were among those who launched the International Partnership Against Impunity for Use of Chemical Weapons on Tuesday. More than two dozen like-minded nations endorsed a political commitment to share information on combating the use of chemical weapons worldwide.

The U.S. secretary of state noted Russia’s failure to resolve the chemical weapons issue in Syria calls into question its commitment to the resolution of the overall crisis.

“At a very minimum, Russia must stop vetoing and at least abstain from future security council votes on this issue,” Tillerson said.

In November, Russia vetoed the renewal of an independent and technical group created by the U.N. Security Council, the so-called Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM), to look into the perpetrators of chemical weapons attacks in Syria.

“When Russia killed the JIM, they sent a dangerous message to the world — one that not only said chemical weapons use is acceptable but also that those who use chemical weapons don’t need to be identified or held accountable,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said in a statement Tuesday.

Concern about Turkey’s Afrin offensive

Turkey’s offensive in the northern Syrian enclave of Afrin was also a focus of Tuesday’s talks in Paris, with Tillerson meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu. A day earlier, during remarks in London, the top U.S. diplomat said the United States is “concerned” about the offensive against U.S.-backed Kurdish YPG fighters in Syria.

Turkish forces intensified military operations on Monday to push the Kurdish militia out of the Afrin area.

The Turkish operation is aimed at ousting from Afrin the Syrian Kurdish group that has controlled territory in northern Syria and proven effective in the U.S.-coalition-led fight against Islamic State militants.

Turkey considers the YPG to be a terrorist organization associated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK, which has fought for Kurdish autonomy in Turkey.

French Foreign Minister Le Drian on Tuesday joined Tillerson in expressing his concern about Turkey’s military operation in Afrin.

“I had the opportunity to tell my Turkish colleague that this offensive worries us,” Le Drian said.

“While we understand the concerns Turkey has about border security, we cannot but call on Turkey to show the greatest level restraint on this issue,” the French foreign minister added.

Turkey’s shelling into Afrin came after the U.S.-led coalition said it would form a 30,000-strong Kurdish-led border security force in northern Syria.

Washington later said the effort had been mischaracterized and that the United States was not creating a border force, but that the coalition would provide security to liberated areas, blocking escape routes for Islamic State militants.
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Pentagon chief Jim Mattis would like to boost U.S. cooperation with Indonesia’s military. Now he has a better idea of what they can do.

Indonesian special forces put on an elaborate counterterrorism demonstration for the visiting U.S. defense secretary in Jakarta Wednesday – although that’s an understatement. 

There were shirtless strong men with war-painted faces breaking stacks of flaming bricks with their heads. Teams of commandos beheading snakes with their mouths and drinking their blood. And a trio of German Shepherd dogs descending from helicopters to defeat a hostage-wielding “terrorist” while the theme from “Mission Impossible” played in the background.

Mattis, who observed the 20-minute demonstration alongside a senior Indonesian military official at the country’s armed forces headquarters, appeared to enjoy the show.

“Me and the snakes,” Mattis joked afterwards with reporters. “When you watch a force do that many small things perfectly, you can imagine that they can also put the bigger issues together.” 

“Even the dogs coming out of the helicopters knew what to do,” he added, laughing. 

The big issues 

Mattis’ visit aims to expand overall military cooperation with Indonesia, which is modernizing its military and – in addition to boosting counterterrorism cooperation – has shown an increased willingness to push back against China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. 

Indonesia is also dealing with the possible return of hundreds of its citizens who fought with the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq. “We are out to expand in ways that respond to any requests from Indonesia on counterterrorism to include the special forces units,” Mattis said Tuesday alongside Defense Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu. 

Following those talks, Ryamizard said he would like Mattis to help relax the legal limitations on closer U.S. ties with Kopassus, an elite Indonesian special forces group that has faced restrictions stemming from a past record of abuses that include killings and torture, mostly in the 1990s.

While in Jakarta, Mattis has said he wants to expand counterterrorism cooperation with the Kopassus, noting that the group has since reformed.

“That was upwards of 20 years ago, and we’ll look at it since then,” Mattis said after meeting with Indonesia’s president, defense minister, and other leaders. 

“Under our rules, there are established procedures for rehabilitating a unit that has been alleged or has committed certain acts,” Mattis said. “And we will go through the established procedures.”

It is not immediately clear if Kopassus forces took part in Wednesday’s demonstration.

Rights abuses

Kopassus’ alleged abuses include massacres in East Timor, the abduction and forced disappearance of student pro-democracy activists, and a torture campaign in Aceh during a now-ended insurgency. Rights groups say many of those responsible have not been held accountable. 

Amid those concerns, the U.S. severed ties with Kopassus in 1999. In 2010, the Pentagon took initial steps toward reestablishing cooperation, but that has been limited and non-lethal, consisting of staff exchanges and low-level subject matter dialogue.

Mattis said he believes the now-reformed group would stand up to the scrutiny of the U.S.’ Leahy Law, which prohibits Washington from providing military assistance to foreign security forces that violate human rights. 

“Some Kopassus commanders have tried to do their jobs better,” said Andreas Harsono, who focuses on Indonesia for Human Rights Watch. 

In 2013, a Kopassus commander allowed 11 of his men to be tried and sentenced for invading a prison and killing some inmates, Harsono said. But, he said, there remain allegations that the group is still involved in unlawful spying activities in West Papua, the Indonesian half of New Guinea island. 

“Kopassus still retain their abusive soldiers, including those involved in kidnapping students and convicted in killing civilians,” he added. 

Joseph Felter, the top U.S. defense official on Southeast Asia, said the Pentagon sees “real value and potential in working with Kopassus as a partner in counterterrorism,” if the State Department were to loosen restrictions.

“They are a very, very effective counterterrorism unit,” Felter said. 

The U.S. already has very close ties with the Indonesian military. Since 2013, Felter said the U.S. has sold over $1.5 billion to Indonesia under the foreign military sales program, including the Apache helicopter and the F-16. And Jakarta is considering buying more F-16s, he added. 

“Any time we can help a partner uphold a free and fair rules-based order in a free and open Indo-Pacific, that’s what we’re here for,” Felter said. 

Vietnam

Mattis on Wednesday landed in Vietnam, where China is a major focus.

The Pentagon last week unveiled a new National Defense Strategy that prioritizes the U.S. geopolitical rivalry with China and Russia. 

Vietnam is one of the most vocal opponents of China’s expansive maritime claims and has clashed at times with Chinese ships in the area. 

China claims nearly the entire South China Sea, ignoring the claims of many of its neighbors. 

The U.S. says it does not take a position on the territorial disputes, but wants freedom of navigation in the region and has at times blamed Chinese actions for raising tensions. 

“(Vietnam) does have one of the region’s fastest growing economies, and so freedom of navigation and access in the South China Sea will be critical to them economically and of course in their security efforts,” Mattis said. 
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The White House has expressed confidence in FBI Director Christopher Wray following reports that Wray threatened to resign rather than give in to indirect pressure from President Donald Trump to fire his top deputy, Andrew McCabe.

“The president has complete confidence in Director Wray. He put him there for a reason, and he sees fit to let him run that agency. And he thinks he’s doing a great job, and he’s glad he’s there,” White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told VOA.

The Axios news website first reported that Attorney General Jeff Sessions, at Trump’s urging, was pressuring Wray to remove McCabe and other members of former FBI Director James Comey’s inner circle, amid allegations that senior agency officials had shown political bias in their professional work.

Axios, noting that the firing would have created a media firestorm, reported that the White House relented after Wray pushed back against the pressure.

Trump has on several occasions fired off Tweets expressing displeasure with McCabe, noting that the FBI official’s wife received $700,000 in campaign contributions from what he described as “Clinton puppets” when the official’s wife ran for statewide office in Virginia as a Democrat, and noting with approval that McCabe is eligible to retire with full benefits in March.

Sanders Tuesday declined further comment on McCabe, except to note that he is expected to leave the agency soon.

“He’s already in the process of retirement, and I don’t have further comment on that other than to say the president wants Director Wray to make the decisions that he sees fit and sees necessary to run his agency,” she said.

Trump on Tuesday kept up his Twitter pressure on the nation’s premier law enforcement agency, noting that FBI officials have admitted that they cannot locate thousands of text messages between two senior officials accused of displaying anti-Trump bias in their work on investigations involving the president.

“In one of the biggest stories in a long time, the FBI now says it is missing five months worth of lovers Strzok-Page texts, perhaps 50,000, and all in prime time. Wow!”

The latest Trump tweet comes days after Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, sent a letter to Wray asking to explain why it failed to preserve the text messages between Peter Strzok, the top FBI counterterrorism official, and agency attorney Lisa Page.

Strzok, who was also the lead investigator on the FBI team looking into Hillary Clinton’s email server, was removed from the Trump Russia probe months ago after it was discovered that he and Page, who were linked romantically, had disparaged Trump in text messages during the presidential campaign. The missing texts cover a five-month period from shortly after the election through May 2017.

Page had left Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigative team before the text messages were discovered.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal last month, Trump called Strzok’s behavior “treasonous.”

As Republicans in Congress stepped up efforts to learn more about allegations of political bias at the FBI, Attorney General Sessions Monday vowed to get to the bottom of the missing text issue.

“We will leave no stone unturned to confirm with certainty why these text messages are not now available to be produced and will use every technology available to determine whether the missing messages are recoverable from another source,” Sessions said. “If we are successful, we will update the congressional committees immediately.”

Sanders last week expressed confidence that Wray would act to remove what she called “problematic” leadership at the FBI that she said has biased Mueller’s Russia probe.

“We’re glad that Director Wray is there. We feel like he’s going to clean up some of the messes left behind by his predecessor. And we look forward to this [Russia probe] concluding soon and showing what we’ve been saying all along, that there’s nothing to see here and certainly no collusion.”

 
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At least one person was killed and others wounded in a shooting Tuesday at a high school in the southeastern U.S. state of Kentucky, officials said.

Governor Matt Bevin and state police confirmed on Twitter a shooting at Marshall County High School in the city of Benton in western Kentucky.

Police said the gunman was apprehended within 15 minutes of the shooting and that the school had been “secured.”

Bevin, who quickly departed the Capitol in Frankfort for the school, issued a statement saying, “It is unbelievable that this would happen in a small, close-knit community like Marshall County. As there is still much unknown, I encourage people to love each other.”

Federal authorities have joined state and local law enforcement agencies in the investigation.

Kentucky State Police said more information would be provided when it becomes available. High school officials were not immediately available for comment.

The school, which has an enrollment of more than 1,100 students, is about 40 kilometers from Paducah, Kentucky, where a 1997 school shooting claimed the lives of three people and injured five others.

On Monday, in Texas, a 15-year-old girl was wounded after being shot by a 16-year-old classmate in the cafeteria of a high school in the town of Italy.
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China and South Korea are protesting U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose steep tariffs on washing machines and solar panels, a move that is fueling concerns in Asia that more U.S. protectionist measures are forthcoming.

South Korean Trade Minister Kim Hyun-chong called the tariffs “excessive” and said they violate World Trade Organization rules. Kim said South Korea planned to file a petition against the U.S. at the WTO.

The tariffs significantly impact South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics, which have captured about one quarter of the U.S. washing machine market that is dominated by American companies Whirlpool and General Electric.

Samsung said the tariffs are “a tax on every consumer who wants to buy a washing machine.”

China, the U.S.’ largest trade partner and the world’s biggest solar panel manufacturer, said the tariffs are an “overreaction” that would hurt the global trade environment.

Beijing’s Commerce Ministry said it would collaborate with other WTO members to “resolutely defend its legitimate interests,” without offering specifics.

Trump has frequently criticized China for engaging in what he believes are unfair trade practices that have led to the elimination of U.S. jobs.

“After a year’s preparation, Trump is ready to take action to address the huge trade deficit with China and get even,” said Zhang Yi, chief economist with the Beijing-based Capital Securities.

Washington will impose tariffs of up to 50 percent on large washing machines over a three-year period and up to 30 percent on solar panels over four years.

They were imposed after the U.S. International Trade Commission found that the imported products were “a substantial cause of serious injury to domestic manufacturers.”

 
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The United States is expressing concern about Turkey’s offensive in northern Syria and top officials are appealing for restraint and expressing concern the conflict could spread. 

At Monday’s White House briefing, Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the U.S. understands Turkey’s “legitimate security concerns” and is “committed to working with Turkey as a NATO ally.”  

“Increased violence in Afrin disrupts a relatively stable area of Syria,” she said. “It distracts from international efforts to ensure the lasting defeat of ISIS, it could be exploited by ISIS and al-Qaida for resupply and safe haven, and it risks exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.”

Sanders also urged Turkey “to exercise restraint in its military actions and rhetoric, ensure that its operations are limited in scope and duration, ensure humanitarian aid continues, and avoid civilian casualties. We want to ensure that Assad’s brutal regime cannot return to Afrin, and we will continue working diplomatically to end the Syrian civil war.”

Tensions between US, Turkey

While Washington wants to preserve its relationship with Turkey. it also has ties to Kurdish and other forces forces targeted by Turkey. 

In a London press conference Monday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said “The U.S. is in Syria to defeat ISIS (the so-called Islamic State), and we’ve done that with a coalition of partners, and the Syrian Democratic Forces in particular, which are comprised of Kurdish and Arab, but also elements of Christian forces. It is truly a multiethnic group of fighters who are defending their home territory. And so we are concerned about the Turkish incident in northern Syria.”

Later, Tillerson downplayed concerns about rising tensions between Turkey and the United States.

“I don’t think you’re going to find two NATO allies facing off at all,” he said.

Tillerson said Turkey is worried about “terrorists crossing the border into Turkey and carrying out attacks and we appreciate their right to defend themselves, but this is a tough situation where there are a lot of civilians mixed in. So we’ve asked them to just, try to be precise, try to limit your operation, try to show some restraint.”

Advance notification

U.S. Central Command spokesman Lt. Col. Earl Brown told VOA the U.S. has no coalition operations in Afrin. He also said the U.S. has a MOU (memorandum of understanding) with Turkey where they let the U.S. know of operations in Syria and they have kept to that memorandum.  

“Turkey’s actions in Afrin are unilateral and not associated with coalition operations in Syria,” he said. “In accordance with an existing memorandum of understanding, Turkey is providing advance notification of its operations to the Coalition to ensure awareness prior to military actions.”

The French ambassador to the United Nations, Francois Delattre, asked for “the opportunity for an emergency meeting on the wider situation in Syria, the humanitarian situation in particular.”

He added, “our priority is about Eastern Ghouta and Idlib where there is a tragedy happening before our eyes that is totally unacceptable.”

​Tillerson to meet with French

On Tuesday, Tillerson will meet with senior French officials to discuss a range of issues, including Syria, Iran, Lebanon, Libya, the threat from North Korea, and Ukraine. He will also attend the launch of the International Partnership against Impunity for Use of Chemical Weapons. 

State Department officials say Tillerson is set to make remarks in Paris on Syria and chemical weapons.  Tillerson told reporters he would have an exchange of views on stopping the use of chemical weapons.

“Obviously, we know chemical weapons are being used in Syria. We’ve seen it,” he said. 

Asked about new reports that Syria is again using chemical weapons against its own civilians. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs, Steve Goldstein, could not confirm the report, but he told reporters in Washington Monday:  

“Civilians are being killed and it is not acceptable,” he said.

U.N. to address use of chemical weapons?

Asked whether the United States would raise the issue at the U.N. Security Council, Goldstein said: “We’ll see tomorrow.” 

Goldstein added that Russia needs to do more to stop the killings. 

“Russia had failed to rid Syria of chemical weapons, and they’ve been blocking chemical weapons organizations. Enough is enough,” he warned.

VOA’s Pentagon correspondent Carla Babb contributed to this report
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The U.S. government’s aid chief, Mark Green, made an unannounced visit to Raqqa in Syria on Monday, the most senior U.S. civilian official from the Trump administration to visit the war-struck northern city months after it was retaken from Islamic State.

Green was accompanied by the head of the U.S. Central Command General Joseph Votel, as the United States ramps up efforts to stabilize areas where Islamic State has been driven out by American-backed Kurdish militia.

Lessons from Libya and Iraq showed that stabilizing liberated areas was crucial to preventing them from falling back into the hands of militants.

“We’re at the point where people really do want to go home so this is the moment to seize,” Green, Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), said in a phone interview with Reuters after his seven-hour visit to Raqqa and the Ain Issa camp for people displaced by fighting.

As he drove through the densely built-up city, Green said he was struck by the devastation to buildings and roads, caused by U.S-led coalition air strikes and militia firing from homes.

“The devastation goes back as far as you can see,” Green said. “It is almost beyond description how deep the damage is.”

Green said he also visited a soccer stadium where the locker rooms had been turned into torture chambers for Islamic State.

“You can see a makeshift metal bed where they laid their torture victims right on the bed. It was just gruesome, gruesome,” he added.

But he said despite the destruction there were also signs of hope with vendors selling fruit on the sidewalks, families walking together, and people trying to clear rubble.

“Despite all of the destruction and all of the damage you still see signs of the human spirit … and it gives you so much hope,” he added.

Green’s visit comes days after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson signaled an open-ended military presence in Syria as part of a broader strategy to prevent Islamic State’s resurgence and pave the way for an eventual departure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and to curtail Iran’s influence.

U.S. forces in Syria have already faced direct threats from Syrian and Iranian-backed forces, leading to the shoot-down of Iranian drones and a Syrian jet last year.

In the meantime, Turkey opened a new front in Syria at the weekend launching airstrikes against U.S.-backed Kurdish militia in Afrin province.

Green said the civilian mission was not to rebuild areas but to help civilians return home by clearing roadside bombs, removing rubble, and restoring water and electricity.

“The mission for us is stabilization not reconstruction,” Green emphasized. “Our part of it is restoring essential services and there is a lot of work to do,” he added.

Green said he would be traveling to Europe within days to press allies to help with stabilization efforts.

 
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