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As the Kremlin escalates its war on Ukraine and tightens its clampdown on any domestic opposition to the invasion, the world of Russian arts and culture, historically opposed to violence and war, descends into pessimism. Marcus Harton narrates this report from VOA’s Moscow bureau.
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When Russia launched its full invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, the country’s journalists found themselves on the front lines.

The dedication of Ukrainian journalists to keep reporting under such trying times is being recognized Thursday, when Sevgil Musaieva, editor-in-chief of Ukrainska Pravda, is honored with an International Press Freedom Award.

Known for its investigative reporting into corruption, Ukrainska Pravda since the war has pivoted to coverage of Russia’s invasion.

In announcing its award to Musaieva, the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists cited her leadership that assisted Ukrainska Pravda journalists in “providing critical, reliable coverage despite the dangers of war.”

En route to New York to collect her award, Musaieva spoke with VOA’s Eastern Europe bureau chief, Myroslava Gongadze, in Warsaw, Poland, about how the war has changed her media outlet’s approach, and more widely on Ukrainian journalists’ commitment to media freedom. Gongadze is the widow of Ukrainska Pravda’s founder, Georgiy Gongadze, who founded the publication in 2000 and was kidnapped and killed in retaliation for his reporting that same year.

Musaieva is one of three International Press Freedom Awardees. The CPJ in 2022 is also recognizing jailed Vietnamese blogger Pham Doan Trang, Iraqi Kurdish reporter Niyaz Abdullah, and independent Cuban journalist and Washington Post columnist Abraham Jiménez Enoa, who is in exile in Spain.

This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

VOA: What does this prestigious media freedom award mean for you and for Ukrainian journalists?

Musaieva: It’s recognition of all journalists who cover this terrible war. And it’s also recognition of my colleagues, journalists of Ukrainska Pravda and of independent journalism, [which is] one of the greatest achievements of our country in the past 30 years of independence.

VOA: How has the war affected your work in terms of coverage and in terms of the difficulties that you incurred during this time?

Musaieva: Of course [our work] has changed dramatically. Before this war, we focused more on domestic issues. We covered politics, corruption, we did a lot of investigations into high level officials.

[That focus] has changed dramatically, because 90% of our coverage now is about war and coverage from the front line.

Even when we publish political stories, some of [that reporting] irritates people because they think it’s not a good time for such coverage.

But still, we do our best not only to cover this war but also to cover misconduct of high officials even in time of war.

VOA: Ukrainska Pravda is one of the top publications in Ukraine and famous for its investigative journalism. How will that work during and after the war, now that Ukrainian officials are used to not being challenged by journalists?

Musaieva: A lot of investigative projects in Ukraine focus more on war crimes. Our team also publishes a lot of stories about Russian oligarchs and the yachts and jets. We covered a story about [Chechen leader] Ramzan Kadyrov’s villa in Dubai.

But now we have decided that we have to move forward with our investigation department [and] domestic politics.

For example, we published an investigation about misconduct by a high-level official in [the Ukrainian city of] Dnipro.

It will be even more terrible after the war. We will [likely find] that a lot of misconduct and corruption took place.

VOA: How is the role of journalism changing during the war?

Musaieva: I went to territories that were under Russian occupation and met a lot of people. They told me the hardest part during the occupation was not being without electricity, without food or water. The main challenge was being out of news all the time.

In the first days of the invasion, I received a call from one of my colleagues in Mariupol. It was February 28 and he was crying because he believed that Kyiv had surrendered.

Russia spread that information in Mariupol when it occupied the city.

What Russia did first was it blocked all Ukrainian websites, it blocked all Ukrainian information, and even prosecuted people who still read Ukrainian news.

But at the same time, I think [Ukrainian] authorities changed the understanding of media during the war. They think they can use us as they want. And I think it’s a big mistake.

I understand a lot of restrictions during war — for example, not to publish the place after a missile attack, and some restrictions in the beginning of September, before the counteroffensive.

But some of the restrictions can be a manipulation to not cover sensitive topics for the Ukrainian government.

But journalism will fight back.

VOA: What kind of challenges will affect the future of media and journalism in Ukraine?

Musaieva: The main one is emotional pressure. The second is financial pressure. The business model of Ukrainska Pravda was destroyed by this war, and now we are dependent on donors and from our readers.

But I hope something will change in the near future.

There is this definition, “the fog of war.” Everyone is so focused on the war, you can miss important events or stories.

So those challenges will be important for Ukrainian journalists as well.

And of course, I think that we will probably face censorship efforts, unfortunately, because it’s war and because officials say that during the war you can’t tell the whole truth and they want to control the informational field.

But I strongly believe that Ukrainian journalists will fight back because we’ve experienced [censorship] before and [because] one of the main values of the Ukrainian democratic state is freedom of speech.

VOA: You’re a young journalist and a Crimean Tatar who has been through a lot during the history of Ukraine: the revolution, censorship during Viktor Yanukovich’s presidency, and now war. How are you personally holding up?

Musaieva: It’s difficult of course, when I see people in the occupied territories and when I see among this Ukrainian army a lot of former journalists, former artists. I understand that I don’t have time for self-reflection.

What gives me hope? I have a dream that Ukraine will be free and my native Crimea will be free. And I will see the Black Sea together with my children and my husband. This one picture gives me hope.

I have this connection with this country, with my native Crimea. And I understand that we will be free. And we pay, every single day, a huge price for this freedom and for democracy. But at the same time, it gives me hope.
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Qatar’s Supreme Committee said it has apologized after a Danish film crew was threatened by security staff live on air as they broadcast in the capital Doha ahead of the World Cup.

TV2 reporter Rasmus Tantholdt was speaking as part of a live broadcast when he was approached by security staff that had appeared on a golf buggy next to the newly-opened Chedi Hotel at Katara Cultural Village.

In the footage, which went viral on social media, Tantholdt is seen remonstrating with the security officials, displaying his accreditation before accusing them of declaring they want to break the camera equipment.

A statement from the Supreme Committee said the Danish broadcast crew were “mistakenly interrupted” during a live broadcast.

“Upon inspection of the crew’s valid tournament accreditation and filming permit, an apology was made to the broadcaster by on-site security before the crew resumed their activity.

“Tournament organizers have since spoken to the journalist and issued an advisory to all entities to respect the filming permits in place for the tournament.”

Tantholdt was also caught on camera asking: “You invited the whole world here. Why can’t we film?”

The decision to award Qatar hosting rights for the 2022 World Cup has been marred by controversy — including allegations of corruption and human rights violations — since it was first announced 12 years ago. How the host country treats visitors is being heavily scrutinized.

Watch VOA’s related special project video:

The Supreme Committee for Delivery & Legacy was set up by the Qatar government to plan and prepare for the World Cup.

The tournament gets under way on Sunday as Qatar take on Ecuador in the tournament opener.
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The top U.S. general on Wednesday said Ukraine’s chances of any near-term, outright military victory were not high, cautioning that Russia still had significant combat power inside Ukraine despite suffering battlefield setbacks since its invasion in February.

Ukraine has vowed to keep the pressure on Russian forces until it reclaims control of all occupied territory. Over the weekend, Ukrainian forces recaptured the strategic southern city of Kherson, stoking optimism about Kyiv’s broader military prospects heading into winter.

Still, U.S. Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, urged caution.

“The probability of a Ukrainian military victory — defined as kicking the Russians out of all of Ukraine to include what they claim as Crimea — the probability of that happening anytime soon is not high, militarily,” Milley told a news conference at the Pentagon.

“There may be a political solution where, politically, the Russians withdraw. That’s possible,” he said, adding that Russia “right now is on its back.”

Milley added that the United States would support Ukraine in defending itself for as long as it takes, comments echoed by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the same event.

Milley and Austin addressed reporters after a virtual meeting between dozens of defense ministers supporting Ukraine’s military with billions of dollars in military hardware as well as training, advising and intelligence support.

“Ukraine will continue to endure. Ukraine is not going to back down,” Milley said, adding that Ukraine was free, “and they want to remain free.”

Attacks on power grid

Milley accused Russia of “imposing a campaign of terror” on Ukraine with its attacks on cities and energy plants.

“The deliberate targeting of the civilian power grid, causing excessive collateral damage, and unnecessary suffering on the civilian population is a war crime,” Milley said.

The Pentagon has stressed the importance of military-to-military communication with Moscow during the nine-month war. Austin and Milley both spoke with their Russian counterparts last month after Moscow accused Ukraine of planning a “dirty bomb” attack.

But Milley acknowledged unsuccessful attempts to reach his Russian counterpart on Tuesday after a deadly missile strike in Poland raised concerns about spillover of the war into NATO territory. Ukraine is not a member of the trans-Atlantic defense alliance but aspires to join.

NATO leaders said on Wednesday that the missile that hit Poland was probably a stray fired by Ukraine’s air defenses and not a Russian strike.

Austin said Ukraine knows that it would be a mistake to allow Russia to refit and rearm its troops.

“They have to continue to keep the pressure on the Russians going forward and I think (a) winter fight favors the Ukrainians,” Austin said.
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Britain faces major security threats from the trio of Russia, China and Iran, which all use coercion, intimidation and violence to pursue their interests, the U.K.’s domestic intelligence spy chief said Wednesday.

Ken McCallum, director-general of MI5, added to mounting warnings from British authorities about Russia’s aggression and China’s growing assertiveness. He also singled out Iran as a mounting concern, saying U.K authorities have uncovered at least 10 “potential threats” this year to “kidnap or even kill British or U.K.-based individuals perceived as enemies of the regime.”

He said Iran’s intelligence services “are prepared to take reckless action” against opponents, both on Western soil and by luring people to Iran.

Last week, the U.K. government summoned Tehran’s top diplomat in London for a dressing-down, accusing Iran of threatening journalists working in Britain. U.K-based Farsi-language satellite news channel Iran International said British police had warned two of its journalists about “an imminent, credible and significant risk to their lives and those of their families.”

In a speech outlining the major threats to the U.K. from both hostile states and terror groups, McCallum said there is a risk Russia, China and Iran could help one another, “amplifying their strengths.”

He said Russia’s espionage capabilities had been dealt a “significant strategic blow” since the invasion of Ukraine from the expulsion of 400 spies working under diplomatic cover at Russian missions in Europe, including 23 in the U.K.

But, he said, British spies are still facing a “Russian covert toolkit” that includes assassination attempts, “cyberattacks, disinformation, espionage” and interfering with democracy.

“The U.K. must be ready for Russian aggression for years to come,” he said.

McCallum cast China as an even longer-term problem, saying “the activities of the Chinese Communist Party pose the most game-changing strategic challenge to the U.K.”

Using a sports analogy, McCallum said “Russia thinks nothing of throwing an elbow in the face and routinely cheats to get its way.”

“The Chinese authorities present a different order of challenge,” he said. “They’re trying to rewrite the rulebook, to buy the league, to recruit our coaching staff to work for them.”

McCallum accused Beijing of monitoring, intimidating, coercing and “forcibly repatriating Chinese nationals to harassment and assault.”

He also said Chinese authorities were playing a long game in trying to influence British politics by “seeking to co-opt and influence not just prominent parliamentarians across the political landscape, but people much earlier in their careers in public life, gradually building a debt of obligation.”

He said such activities were likely to grow as Chinese President Xi Jinping “consolidates power on an indefinite basis.”

At a Group of 20 summit in Indonesia this week, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said China posed “a systemic challenge to our values and interests and it represents the biggest state-based threat to our economic security.”

Last month, the head of Britain’s cyberintelligence agency, GCHQ, called China’s growing power the “national security issue that will define our future.”

Speaking at MI5’s high-security London headquarters, McCallum said Britain still faces a terror threat from both self-radicalized lone actors and groups such as al-Qaida and the Islamic State group, which he said “are down but definitely not out.”

He said MI5 had disrupted 37 “late stage” attack plots since 2017, eight of them in the past year. Three-quarters were driven by Islamic extremism and the rest by far-right ideology, he said.

Many of the plots involved “low-sophistication attacks” by self-radicalized extremists. Groups such as IS and al-Qaida have been weakened, but still pose “a very real risk that we are dealing with every day.”

McCallum also said his agents and police had done “quietly effective work” to ensure the safety of 10 days of national mourning that followed the death of Queen Elizabeth II in September.

The commemorations brought the biggest crowds in decades into London, as hundreds of thousands lined up to see the late monarch lie in state or watch her funeral procession.

He said no major attack plots were uncovered, but agents worked “to respond to emerging possible early stage” attacks as well as doing “protective security work.”

“There was nothing close to a late-stage goal-line clearance in respect to those events,” he said. “But there was good work done in a low-key way behind the scenes.”
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NATO and G-7 leaders met for an emergency meeting Wednesday on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, to discuss the explosion in eastern Poland. There were concerns the incident marked a significant escalation in Moscow’s war on Ukraine. However, both Poland and NATO say the explosion was not caused by Russian attack. VOA’s White House Bureau Chief Patsy Widakuswara has this report from Bali.
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday he believes an agreement allowing for Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea will remain in place beyond its Saturday expiration.

Erdogan told reporters at the G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, that there were ongoing talks about extending the deal, and that he planned to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin upon returning from the summit.

The United Nations and Turkey brokered deals with Ukraine and Russia in July to allow for Ukraine to export grain from its Black Sea ports with vessels screened in Turkey, and for Russia to export food and fertilizer.

The U.N. says about 11 million tons of grain and foodstuffs have been exported to 42 countries since the deal began.

Russia launched waves of airstrikes on Ukraine Tuesday, targeting 10 regions, including the capital of Kyiv, in a military rebuke to Ukrainians reveling in one of their biggest wartime successes, last week’s takeover of the key southern city of Kherson.

Air raid alerts sounded throughout the country. The barrage of nearly 100 strikes — including with missiles — followed days of euphoria in Ukraine after the Russian retreat from Kherson and the Ukrainian takeover of the regional capital that Moscow’s forces had captured early in the nearly nine-month war.

In Bali, Indonesia, at the meeting of the leaders of the Group of 20 largest industrialized countries, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan condemned the Russian airstrikes.

“It is not lost on us that, as world leaders meet at the G-20 in Bali to discuss the issues of significant importance to the lives and livelihoods of people around the world, Russia again threatens those lives and destroys Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. These Russian strikes will serve to only deepen the concerns among the G20 about the destabilizing impact of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s war,” Sullivan said in a statement. “We will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

With its battlefield defeats, Russia has resorted to more long-range aerial attacks on Ukraine’s power grid as winter approaches, believing it to be a demoralizing psychological weapon to leave Ukrainians in the cold and dark.

White House correspondent Anita Powell contributed to this report. Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters
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U.S. President Joe Biden said it was unlikely that a missile that struck Poland on Tuesday was fired from Russia, adding: “I’m going to make sure we figure out exactly what happened.”

Biden, who is in Bali, Indonesia, for a meeting of the Group of 20 largest economies, came from an emergency meeting where he hosted the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the European Union, along with the president of the European Council and the prime ministers of NATO allies Spain and the Netherlands.

Earlier Biden spoke to Polish President Andrzej Duda and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

The United States and Western allies are investigating the reports Tuesday that a blast in NATO member Poland resulted from stray Russian missiles, while Russia’s defense ministry denies any connection to the blast.

“We are aware of the press reports alleging that two Russian missiles have struck a location inside Poland on the Ukrainian border. I can tell you that we don’t have any information at this time to corroborate those reports and are looking into this further,” Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters at the Pentagon.

Stoltenberg said via Twitter that he also had spoken with Duda about the explosion and offered his condolences for the loss of life. Reports say at least two Polish citizens were killed.

“NATO is monitoring the situation, and Allies are closely consulting. Important that all facts are established,” Stoltenberg said.

Eliot Higgins, the founder of the investigative journalism and open-source intelligence group Bellingcat, reposted a social media image of the debris from the alleged site in Poland and noted that it appeared to be from an air defense missile, like the S-300s used by Ukraine to shoot down Russian missiles. If confirmed, this could mean the blast potentially originated from a Ukrainian intercept of a Russian missile targeting Ukrainian territory.

Asked what the incident could mean for the administration, Ryder declined to discuss hypotheticals, adding, “When it comes to our security commitments and Article Five, we’ve been crystal clear that we will defend every inch of NATO territory.”

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley are to host the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group meeting virtually at the Pentagon on Wednesday. Ryder said Ukraine would provide a battlefield assessment, which would lead to a “robust discussion on Ukraine’s security needs.”

Russia launched waves of airstrikes on Ukraine Tuesday, targeting 10 regions, including the capital of Kyiv, in a military rebuke to Ukrainians reveling in one of their biggest wartime successes, last week’s takeover of the key southern city of Kherson.

The airstrikes rocked Ukraine from east to west, hitting energy facilities and other infrastructure, as well as residential buildings in Kyiv, where one death was reported.

A video in Kyiv, published by a presidential aide, showed a five-story building, apparently a residential structure, on fire. Mayor Vitali Klitschko said three residential buildings were hit but that air defense units shot down other missiles.

Air raid alerts sounded throughout the country. The barrage of nearly 100 strikes — including with missiles — followed days of euphoria in Ukraine after the Russian retreat from Kherson and the Ukrainian takeover of the regional capital that Moscow’s forces had captured early in the nearly nine-month war.

In Bali, Indonesia, at the meeting of the leaders of the Group of 20 largest industrialized countries, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan condemned the Russian airstrikes.

“It is not lost on us that, as world leaders meet at the G-20 in Bali to discuss the issues of significant importance to the lives and livelihoods of people around the world, Russia again threatens those lives and destroys Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. These Russian strikes will serve to only deepen the concerns among the G20 about the destabilizing impact of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s war,” Sullivan said in a statement. “We will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

With its battlefield defeats, Russia has resorted to more long-range aerial attacks on Ukraine’s power grid as winter approaches, believing it to be a demoralizing psychological weapon to leave Ukrainians in the cold and dark.

Ukrainian officials reported strikes Tuesday in Lviv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi and Rivne in the west, and Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, in the northeast. Several missiles also hit Kryvyi Rih, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s native city, according to Oleksandr Vilkul, head of the military administration in Kryvyi Rih.

Ukrainian officials were working frantically to restore water and power in Kherson and begin to investigate alleged Russian abuses there and in surrounding communities.

Matilda Bogner, the head of the United Nations human rights office’s monitoring mission in Ukraine, on Tuesday decried a “dire humanitarian situation” in Kherson. She said her teams are trying to verify allegations of nearly 80 cases of enforced disappearances and arbitrary detention and “understand whether the scale is in fact larger than what we have documented already.”

Zelenskyy on Tuesday said a “real and complete cessation of hostilities” will result if Russia withdraws all its troops from Ukraine and restores Ukrainian control to his country’s territory along the border with Russia.

Speaking virtually to the world leaders at the G-20 summit, Zelenskyy said delays in bringing an end to the conflict mean the deaths of more Ukrainians and more threats to the world.

“I am convinced now is the time when the Russian destructive war must and can be stopped,” Zelenskyy said.

White House correspondent Anita Powell contributed to this report. Some information in this report came from The Associated Press.
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Poland is increasing the readiness of some of its military units, government officials said Tuesday, after unconfirmed reports that stray Russian missiles killed two people near the country’s border with Ukraine.

Polish President Andrzej Duda, who spoke with U.S. President Joe Biden and NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, was reportedly considering whether to call urgent consultations with NATO leaders under the alliance’s Article 4. The article allows NATO members to bring any issue of concern, especially regarding security, for discussion at the North Atlantic Council.

A NATO official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the alliance was looking into the reports, as was the U.S. National Security Council, The Associated Press reported. The Russian Defense Ministry has denied the allegations.

What is NATO Article 4?

The article allows NATO members to bring any issue of concern, especially regarding security, for discussion at the North Atlantic Council. Article 4 does not mean there will be direct pressure to act.

Under Article 4, any member state can convene a meeting of NATO members to “consult” when it feels its independence or security is threatened. In practice, it has rarely been used; regardless, it sends a strong message to the greater world that NATO is concerned about the situation.

What is NATO Article 5?

The principle of collective defense — meaning that an attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all allies — is the keystone of NATO. It states that an “armed attack” against one member is an attack against all and sets in motion the possibility of collective self-defense.

However, it commits each NATO member to “assist the party or parties so attacked” and to take “such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force.” It does not automatically result in military action.

How would NATO decide to invoke either article?

In theory, Articles 4 and 5 could be invoked only at the request of a NATO member.

Since the alliance’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked seven times, most recently on February 24, 2022, when Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia requested to hold consultations under Article 4 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Article 5 has been invoked only once, immediately following the September 11, 2001, terror attacks against the United States.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty contributed to this article. Some material for this report came from Reuters and The Associated Press.
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Ukraine’s bitter winter is approaching fast, when temperatures can fall as low as minus 30 degrees Celsius.

The conditions will have a big impact on the war with invading Russian forces, according to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.

“It’s [the] main obstacle for all the military campaign. If it’s rainy, you have to stay, because you cannot use the wheeled armored vehicles or personnel carriers. You can use only [vehicles] with the tracks. If it’s snowy, the same answer. If it’s not snowy but you have frozen … hard ground, you can use wheeled vehicles. So, it all depends on the weather conditions, the next stage of this campaign,” Reznikov told the Reuters news agency on November 10.

Battlefield gains

Ukraine has made significant advances in recent weeks, recapturing the city of Kherson. Its forces are determined to make further battlefield gains.

“Winter will not stop us,” said Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Luhansk region, which is partly under the control of Russian forces.

“It is better for our troops to move forward at least slowly, but we cannot stand still. No one will engage in positional wars,” he told The Associated Press.

There is speculation that Ukrainian forces from Kharkiv could seek to drive southward toward the devastated city of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. Retired U.S. General Ben Hodges said the Kremlin’s forces are vulnerable.

“They will have trenches, but it is wide open terrain [in the south], easy to target Russians there,” he told Reuters.

Slow progress

Having been forced to retreat both in Kherson and Kharkiv, Russian forces are now digging in. Ukraine said Russia has mined huge areas in the east, and dozens of bridges have been blown up.

Progress for either side will be difficult, according to Justin Bronk, a military analyst at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, a research institution.

“What maneuvers do take place will be much more roadbound. And so, it will be harder for either side to move without getting bracketed by artillery very quickly, because their movements will be that much more predictable,” Bronk told VOA.

Morale

Conditions for troops on the ground will be extremely tough.

“It may exacerbate the morale differences between the increasingly conscript-supported, with very limited training Russian forces, and the Ukrainian forces, who are equally in miserable conditions but are motivated in defending their homes,” Bronk said.

“Being stuck out in foxholes and trenches in sub-zero temperatures for prolonged periods — especially in the Russian case, with very limited supplies and limited winter clothing — is not a recipe for good morale,” he added.

Air defense

Russia is targeting Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, including its electricity and running water, Bronk said, adding that the West must help counter Russia’s tactics.

“If we don’t supply Ukraine with significantly enhanced air defense capacity to try and counter those cruise missiles and the Iranian-supplied Shahed loitering munitions, then a huge number more Ukrainians will become refugees. And a lot of people will freeze.

“The key question now on the ground is going to be who is better placed to retake the offensive initiative once the thaw comes in late February, early March,” Bronk said.
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The U.S. midterm elections have been closely followed overseas — especially in Europe, where analysts say some of America’s closest and oldest allies are relieved that U.S. democracy held the course. But many are unsure for how long — and some are calling for a stronger and more independent Europe as a result.

In France and elsewhere in the European Union, the U.S. midterm elections have dominated the airwaves, including on Tuesday, as final results trickle in showing the Democrats retaining control of the Senate and the Republicans likely to narrowly win the House.

French analyst and historian Nicole Bacharan, who specializes in French-U.S. relations, said last week’s relatively smooth congressional vote eased fears within the European Union about the strength of America’s democracy — and their own sometimes fragile multiparty systems — that was shaken during the tumultuous aftermath of the 2020 U.S. presidential vote.

“The comforting thing about these midterms is obviously there is a majority of American citizens — Republicans and Democrats — who want to be heard through the vote,” said Bacharan. “They did vote — a lot. And they waited peacefully for the results.”

It may be a short-term reprieve. The next U.S. presidential election is only two years away.

“Well, 2024 is a big question mark everywhere — and in Europe especially,” said Bacharan. “Who is going to be the next president? What kind of international vision will he or she have? That’s all unknown.”

Warming relations

Frosty European Union-U.S. relations under former U.S. President Donald Trump have thawed considerably under pro-Europe President Joe Biden. Today, the two sides generally agree when it comes to key issues such as climate change and the war in Ukraine. But tensions still exist, for example, over last year’s hasty U.S. pullout in Afghanistan, or over a nuclear submarine deal with Australia that strained relations between Washington and Paris.

All of this bolsters calls for Europe to invest in its own security.

“We cannot be sure U.S. democracy sustains a medium-term, long-term commitment to underwriting European security in the [generous] way the U.S. has done over the past seven decades,” said Thorsten Benner, who heads the Global Public Policy Institute, a Berlin-based research group. He believes a Republican majority in the U.S. House, for instance, will push Europeans to invest more in Ukraine’s war against Russia. It’s a call he agrees with.

“It is primarily Europe’s problem,” said Benner. “This is a war in our neighborhood and not in Mexico or Canada. So we need to invest more.”

The call for a stronger European defense isn’t new. French President Emmanuel Macron has championed it for years. But progress has been slow.

“Europeans among themselves don’t agree on how to go about it. Just think of the French and the Germans, for instance,” said Bacharan. “And the capabilities of the United States — their military capabilities — [are] so much bigger, so much more enormous than anything going on in Europe. It’s not possible.”

Many said Europe may not have a choice. The next generation of U.S. leaders may be far less committed to the trans-Atlantic alliance than their predecessors. The earlier Europeans prepare for that possibility, they said, the better.
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