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China has emerged as an even more prominent player in world affairs as a result of the crisis in Ukraine and the weakening of Russia, but not necessarily to its advantage, says a Warsaw-based analyst.

The two major events that have “shaped or reshaped Europe’s attitude towards China” are the war in Ukraine and how China reacted to it, and the 20th Chinese communist party congress and its outcome, Ireneusz Bil, chairman of the Warsaw-based Amicus Europae Foundation, said in a phone interview with VOA. The foundation was established by former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski.

If attitudes toward Beijing were hardened due to its stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the latest policy pronouncements and the lineup of the new leadership at the Chinese party congress lends the EU an additional reason to recalibrate its former largely welcoming approach, Bil said.

Under these circumstances, China’s expanded role in international affairs and in a potentially enlarged footprint in Europe, including in Central and Eastern Europe, will be accompanied with increased scrutiny and greater “vigilance,” according to the analyst.

Europe will be more aware of the consequences of the technological exchanges and investments from China than it was before, more vigilant in the screening process, Bil said, compared with the previous experience when “there was no second thought on Chinese investment into the EU.”

Now, people will look at “who’s behind [Chinese investments], what kind of technology they will have access to, what kind of infrastructure they will have access to, what security risks are behind it,” Bil said.

Given these developments, the German government’s recent decision to send a chancellor-led delegation to Beijing and to allow a Chinese state-owned company stakes in the port of Hamburg is viewed with strong reservation in Poland and most other Central and Eastern European countries, Bil told VOA.

Bil described Berlin’s choice as “a unilateral decision to go so quickly after the 20th party congress” that “could be seen as lending support to rising authoritarianism in China.”

“This is not welcomed in Poland, and I think in a majority of EU — as I said, here Germany is seen as under-performing versus Russia, so now their effort to build some kind of new relationship with China is being seen as not in the interest of the whole of the European Union,” he said.

Bil added that whether this action is in the interest of Germany itself is also questionable, judging from the opposition put forth by Germany’s security agencies, among other groups.

Germany and France — bigger countries in the EU — “have overlooked our [most Central and Eastern European countries] interest and our opinions vis-a-vis Russia, you can imagine that we are now seeing a ‘mirror effect’ in their relations with China,” he said. “This has led to a crisis of trust, towards Germany — and their understanding of the change of [the] geostrategic map.”

At the center of Germany and the EU’s relations with China is to what extent each country, and the EU as a whole, rely on China for its economic well-being. At this week’s policy roundtable organized by the European Parliament’s Research Service in Brussels, two analysts say that dependency is “overblown.”

Jacob Kirkegaard is senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund (GMF) in Brussels and nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) in Washington, D.C. He noted at the event held Thursday that the Ukraine crisis has led European nations to look carefully at potential consequences of a fallout with China, in the event Beijing takes similar actions against Taiwan, as Russia did against Ukraine.

“China is a bigger economy, so sanctioning China following a military invasion of Taiwan is going to be a bigger deal than sanctioning Russia, no doubt about that,” Kirkegaard said.

Although undoubtedly there’s going to be a very large contingent of “European industrial interests who will cry that it’s going to be a disaster,” the reality is, he said, “as we have seen during the pandemic, as we have seen now with the gas dependency on Russia,” the global supply chain possesses much more flexibility, “and the actual true long-term dependencies on China will turn out to be a lot lower than we think,” Kirkegaard said.

Ulrich Jochheim, a policy analyst in the external policies unit of the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) who earlier worked as an economic desk officer for Germany and China in the European Commission, agrees.

“Our [German] export to China makes up less than 10%,” relatively insignificant compared to “a figure of 30% — more or less — for Australia, and 42% in the case of Taiwan,” he pointed out at Thursday policy roundtable.

Earlier this month, the EU identified China as a “tough competitor” at its foreign ministers meeting, known as the Foreign Affairs Council (FAC).

Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky described the gathering as providing a platform for “very good and very consensual internal deliberation among EU foreign ministers” about the EU-China relations.

“There is no formal or agreed public outcome of this debate and we do not comment on details of internal debates,” he wrote, in response to VOA’s request for comment. “As customary, the High Representative Josep Borrell as the chairman commented publicly after the meeting and he indeed spoke about ‘a tough competitor, tougher and tougher, and a systemic rival.'”

Lipavsky continued: “I only have one thing to add — there is a cleared-eyed assessment of China and the recognition that the EU is having the biggest leverage, when acting in unity both internally and externally with like-minded partners. As for Czechia, we appreciated the debate, and we will support continuation of it.”

The Czech Republic currently holds the EU presidency.
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U.S. firm Westinghouse Electric Co will build Poland’s first nuclear power plant, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Friday, confirming a long-awaited decision aiming to reduce the country’s carbon emissions and phase out coal.   

With Russia waging war in neighboring Ukraine, Poland’s choice of a partner from the United States underlines the emphasis Warsaw places on relations with Washington at a time when its security is in the spotlight.   

“We confirm our nuclear energy project will use the reliable, safe technology of @WECNuclear,” Morawiecki said on Twitter.   

Westinghouse was competing with South Korea’s state-owned Korea Hydro Nuclear Power, which submitted an offer in April. Warsaw was also talking to French companies about the project.   

“U.S. partnership on this project is advantageous for us all: we can address the climate crisis, strengthen European energy security, and deepen the U.S.-Poland strategic relationship,” Vice President Kamala Harris said in a tweet.   

Harris worked to help Westinghouse secure the contract together with Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, engaging with Morawiecki several times over the past year, a White House official said. The project would create thousands of American jobs, the official added.   

The selection of Westinghouse and of the United States sent a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin “about the strength and the meshing together of a U.S.-Poland alliance,” a senior U.S. government official said.   

Warsaw had been seeking a partner to build 6-9 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity and provide up to 49% equity financing for the project. It planned to choose the technology for the first three reactors by the end of 2022, with the first set to start its operations in 2033.   

“We understand that the decision will be for the first three reactors and it is our expectation that Poland intends to eventually construct six AP1000 reactors from Westinghouse and will make a formal decision about the second set of three at a later date,” the U.S. official said.   

Sources have said that Poland would choose the technology first, which would indicate who the partner would be, and discuss the details of the contract afterwards. 
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Editor’s note: Here is a fast take on what the international community has been up to this past week, as seen from the United Nations perch.    

Russia and Ukraine trade allegations at Security Council

Russia called three meetings of the Security Council this week to press its allegations against Ukraine and its Western allies that they are building dirty bombs to use against Russia and to deny that Moscow had received drones from Iran in violation of a Security Council resolution. Western countries said the dirty bomb meetings were a waste of time and accused Russia of using the council to promote Kremlin disinformation. They have asked the U.N. to send investigators to Ukraine to examine drone debris to determine their origin.

In a private session, International Atomic Energy Agency director general Rafael Grossi updated the council on his efforts to establish a de-militarized protection zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The Russian-occupied facility has been repeatedly shelled during the conflict and has raised fears of a nuclear incident or accident.

Difficult winter ahead for millions of Syrians

The United Nations appealed Tuesday for more money and access to needy Syrians, as winter sets in and a cholera outbreak strains limited resources. At least 14.6 million people need assistance – more than at any other time during the 11-year civil war. In January, the U.N. Security Council will consider renewing the authorization for the cross-border aid operation from Turkey into northwest Syria. Russia has long sought to end the operation, and the already difficult negotiations will take place against the backdrop of council divisions intensified by the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, a new study of U.N. contracts in Syria found that a large share of donor funds went to companies owned by individuals with troubling human rights records or associated with the Bashar al-Assad regime. The report, by U.K.-based nongovernmental organization Syrian Legal Development Program and the Observatory of Political and Economic Networks, said nearly half of U.N. procurement funds went to “risky” or “highly risky” suppliers.

UNEP: Greenhouse gases need to be drastically cut by 2030

Ten days before leaders meet at the COP27 climate review conference in Egypt, the U.N. Environment Program warned Thursday that the window for preventing a climate catastrophe is quickly closing. The agency’s latest Emissions Gap Report says greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by 45% by 2030 to stop climate change. UNEP says the world is falling far short of the Paris climate agreement goals, with no credible pathway for limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

Rights expert calls for new strategy on Myanmar

The U.N. special rapporteur for Myanmar warns that unless the international community changes how it deals with the military junta in that country, the already catastrophic situation will only get worse. Tom Andrews told VOA in an interview this week that countries should form a coalition to implement a coordinated strategy to deprive the military of arms, fuel for their aircraft, financing and the legitimacy the junta seeks.

He singled out Myanmar’s civil society, human rights defenders and journalists as “heroes” who are risking their lives to document atrocities and deserve international support. The junta, he said, has committed crimes against humanity and war crimes.

More atrocities without peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray

A commission of independent U.N. experts examining rights violations and atrocities in the war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region said Friday that without an end to the fighting, the risk of further atrocity crimes is growing. The U.N. International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia said that Ethiopian, Eritrean and Tigrayan forces have all committed violations in the hostilities that began two years ago, several of which rise to war crimes and crimes against humanity.  

Read more on the humanitarian crisis in Tigray:

WHO: Blockade of Humanitarian Aid to Tigray Puts Millions at Risk of Deadly Diseases

In brief

—  The International Organization for Migration said Monday that at least 5,684 migrants have died on European migration routes since the start of 2021. The agency said the numbers of deaths are rising on routes across the Mediterranean, on land borders to Europe and within the continent. The IOM said this highlights the need for more legal and safe pathways for migration.

— As protests across Iran enter their seventh week, the U.N. said Friday it is increasingly concerned about reports of increasing fatalities. Spokesman Stephane Dujarric condemned “all incidents that have resulted in death or serious injury to protestors” and reiterated that security forces must “avoid all unnecessary or disproportionate use of force against peaceful protestors.” The U.N. has called for accountability and for the Iranian authorities to respect human rights, women’s rights and the rights to peaceful assembly, freedom of expression and freedom of association.

—  The U.N. has expressed concern about outbreaks of cholera and watery diarrhea in at least 29 countries this year, including most recently, Haiti, Syria, Lebanon, Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya. The situation is even more worrying, as the World Health Organization said recently there is a shortage of cholera vaccines due to the high number of outbreaks.

Good news

On Thursday, the governments of Lebanon and Israel signed separate letters with the United States delineating the maritime border, ending a yearslong dispute. The signing took place at the U.N. peacekeeping premises in south Lebanon. The letters will be deposited with the United Nations. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the agreement can promote increased regional stability and enhanced prosperity for both nations. The deal between the two enemies that have fought multiple wars removes a hurdle to each country being able to exploit hydrocarbon fields along the border.

Quote of note

“A war without witnesses, as you know, can be terrible.” 

Radhika Coomaraswamy, a member of the three-person U.N. International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia to reporters Friday on the need for access to conflict areas in northern Ethiopia.

What we are watching next week

On Wednesday, the U.N. Security Council will hold an informal meeting on the weeks of protests in Iran sparked by the death in police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. The United States and Albania have called the meeting to highlight “the ongoing repression of women and girls and members of religious and ethnic minority groups in Iran.” Briefers will include Nobel Laureate and human rights defender Shirin Ebadi and Javaid Rehman, the U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in Iran.
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Norwegian climber Kristin Harila on Friday abandoned for now her bid to scale the world’s 14 highest peaks in record time, after China refused to grant her a permit for the final two.

Harila had until November 4 to conquer the summits of Shishapangma and Cho Oyu in Tibet to make history and beat the world record.

The record was set in 2019 by Nepali mountaineer Nirmal Purja, who scaled the 14 “super peaks” above 8,000 meters (26,247 feet) in just six months and six days.

“It is over for now,” Harila, 36, wrote in an Instagram message with emojis of broken hearts and floods of tears.

“We have left no stone unturned in this process and have exhausted every possible avenue to make this happen, but unfortunately due to reasons out of our control we were unable to get the permits in time,” she said.

But the mountaineer, who is on a quest to change how the climbing world views female athletes, vowed to complete her dizzying challenge and make history in 2023.

“In times of adversity one has to find inner strength, which is why I am letting you all know that I am coming back, and I WILL complete this record next year!” she wrote.

Harila, currently in Kathmandu, Nepal, had just a week left to ascend 8,027-meter Shishapangma and Cho Oyu’s 8,201 meters.

But she was refused permission to enter Tibet by the Chinese authorities, who have ruled the region since the 1950s and are accused by rights groups of violently repressing the majority ethnic Tibetan population.

China has rarely issued climbing permits in tightly controlled Tibet in recent years and all but sealed its borders during the coronavirus pandemic.

Harila is a native of Vadso in Norway’s far north, where the highest point is 633 meters. 
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A Cypriot delegation in Lebanon on Friday for talks on maritime border delineation between the two countries said any disputes during that process could be easily resolved.

“There is no problem between Lebanon and Cyprus that cannot be resolved easily,” said Cypriot special envoy Tasos Tzionis, after meeting with outgoing Lebanese President Michel Aoun.

Lebanon and Cyprus reached a maritime border agreement in 2007, but it was never ratified by Lebanon’s parliament and therefore never went into force.

Cyprus delineated its maritime exclusive economic zone vis-a-vis Israel in 2010. Lebanon and Israel officially delineated their contested sea boundary Thursday, following years of U.S.-mediated indirect talks.

Aoun said the next step following that achievement would be defining Lebanon’s maritime boundaries with northern neighbor Syria and resuming talks with Cyprus to the west.

A planned visit this week to Damascus by a top Lebanese delegation was indefinitely postponed after the Syrian government told Beirut it was “not the right time.”

Lebanon’s deputy speaker of parliament and border negotiator Elias Bou Saab said Friday said Syria was still the priority.

“We will not delineate with Cyprus until we communicate with Syria,” Bou Saab told reporters at the presidential palace.
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When Russia invaded Ukraine, Russian journalists who continued to work independently in the country came under significant pressure — so much so that many have been forced to leave. Anush Avetisyan has the story, narrated by Anna Rice. VOA footage by David Gogokhia.
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