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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited a Ukrainian border guard site on the outskirts of Kyiv Thursday as he opened the final day of an unannounced two-day visit.

The tour included presenting four U.S.-provided mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles that are part of a group of 190 of the vehicles to be delivered in coming months.

Blinken also met with a Ukrainian team working to clear unexploded Russian ordnance at a farm where corn was grown for export.

“What’s hard to get our minds around is that one third of Ukrainian territory has mines or unexploded ordnance on it,” Blinken said.  

“Your work is having a profound impact on the lives of Ukrainians and on people around the world,” he said, noting Ukraine’s importance to global food supply.

Blinken Wednesday announced $1 billion in new U.S. aid for Ukraine, with $175 million in security aid that includes additional air defense equipment, artillery munitions, anti-tank weapons including depleted uranium rounds for previously committed Abrams tanks, and other equipment.

Asked whether he is concerned about sustaining support for that level of U.S. aid among American citizens and lawmakers, Blinken was optimistic.

“I was last here almost exactly a year ago,” he said. “And in that time, in the year since I was last here, Ukraine has taken back more than 50% of the territory that Russia has seized from it since February 2022. In the current counteroffensive, we are seeing real progress over the last few weeks.”

Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba said what is being decided in this war is not just about Ukraine, but about what the world is going to look like after the war is over. If Russia wins, other autocrats will be empowered to invade their neighbors, he said, asking, ‘If the West cannot win this war, what war can they win?”

However, on Capitol Hill, one Republican senator expressed concerns to VOA, saying he would like to see a definitive strategy from the Biden administration for Ukraine to win the war.

“I’d like to see an announcement coming from all the NATO members saying that they are willing to step up. … I just got back from a trip to Europe, and we encouraged our NATO allies to actually step up their game, and I would like to see that happen,” Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, said.

The United States is the largest donor of military aid to Ukraine in total dollars. Other countries, including Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the Czech Republic, are making larger financial contributions to Ukraine relative to the size of their own economies, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany.

Some information in this report was provided by VOA congressional correspondent Katherine Gypson.
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Britain is rejoining the European Union’s science-sharing program Horizon Europe, the two sides announced Thursday, more than two years after membership became a casualty of Brexit.

British scientists expressed relief at the decision, the latest sign of thawing relations between the EU and its former member.

After months of negotiations, the British government said the country was becoming a “fully associated member” of the research collaboration body. U.K.-based scientists can bid for Horizon funding starting Thursday and will be able to lead Horizon-backed science projects starting in 2024. Britain is also rejoining Copernicus, the EU space program’s Earth observation component.

“The EU and U.K. are key strategic partners and allies, and today’s agreement proves that point,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who signed off on the deal during a call with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Wednesday. “We will continue to be at the forefront of global science and research.”

The EU blocked Britain from Horizon during a feud over trade rules for Northern Ireland, the only part of the U.K. that shares a border with an EU member, the Republic of Ireland.

The two sides struck a deal to ease those tensions in February, but Horizon negotiations have dragged on over details of how much the U.K. will pay for its membership.

Sunak said he had struck the “right deal for British taxpayers.” The U.K. will not have to pay for the period it was frozen out of Horizon.

Relations between Britain and the bloc were severely tested during the long divorce negotiations that followed Britain’s 2016 vote to leave the EU. The divorce became final in 2020 with the agreement of a bare-bones trade and cooperation deal, but relations chilled still further under strongly pro-Brexit U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Johnson’s government introduced a bill that would let it unilaterally rip up parts of the Brexit agreement, a move the EU called illegal.

Johnson left office amid scandal in mid-2022, and Sunak’s government has quietly worked to improve Britain’s relationship with its European neighbors, though trade friction and deep-rooted mistrust still linger.

British scientists, who feared Brexit would hurt international research collaboration, breathed sighs of relief at the Horizon deal.

“This is an essential step in rebuilding and strengthening our global scientific standing,” said Paul Nurse, director of the Francis Crick Institute for biomedical research. “Thank you to the huge number of researchers in the U.K. and across Europe who, over many years, didn’t give up on stressing the importance of international collaboration for science.”

The U.K.’s opposition Labour Party welcomed the deal but said Britain had already missed out on “two years’ worth of innovation.”

“Two years of global companies looking around the world for where to base their research centers and choosing other countries than Britain, because we are not part of Horizon,” said Labour science spokesman Peter Kyle. “This is two years of wasted opportunity for us as a country.”
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The Ukrainian military said Thursday its air defenses destroyed 25 of 33 drones that Russia used to attack the Sumy and Odesa regions overnight.

Oleh Kiper, the regional governor of Odesa, said the Russian attack hit the Izmail area for the fourth time in five days, injuring one person.

Kiper said the attack also damaged port infrastructure facilities and an administrative building.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said it destroyed two Ukrainian drones over the Rostov region, as well as one in Bryansk and another on the outskirts of Moscow.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Telegram that debris from a downed drone landed in the Ramensky district but did not cause any damage or casualties.

At least 17 people were killed and nearly three dozen more injured in a Russian assault Wednesday on the central market in the eastern Ukraine city of Kostiantynivka, Ukrainian officials said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the attack, saying a market, shops and a pharmacy were hit in the industrial city close to the current front lines of the battlefield, about 30 kilometers from the city of Bakhmut, where there has been heavy combat for months.

“Those who know this place are well aware that it is a civilian area. There aren’t any military units nearby,” Zelenskyy said during a news conference in Kyiv.

“This Russian evil must be defeated as soon as possible,” he added.

Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klimenko posted pictures showing rescue workers sifting through the rubble and carrying out bodies in black sacks.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters. 
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After hitting several resets, restoring historic treasures to former colonies, downsizing its military presence and striking new ties elsewhere on the continent, France’s Africa strategy seems at an impasse, some experts say.

Coups in half a dozen former French colonies in West and Central Africa over three years — including two, in Niger and Gabon, in just over a month — are sparking fresh soul searching about what went wrong and how, if possible, to put longstanding relations and interests back on track. 

Yet many suggest Paris can no longer call the shots, as some African governments cut ties altogether and carve new ones with foreign rivals, including Russia. 

“French influence in the Sahel has collapsed,” wrote France’s influential Le Monde newspaper this past week. “Elsewhere on the continent, it is on the defensive, and nothing Paris says can restore it.” 

That assessment comes as the paper and other media report that discussions between Paris and Niger’s military are under way about the withdrawal of some military elements from the African country.

Until now, French authorities have refused to recognize the military junta that seized power in Niger in late July, dismissing calls for its ambassador and 1,500 French troops stationed there to depart. 

The power grab in Niamey followed a now-familiar playbook. Not so long ago, Niger, along with neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, cooperated closely with Paris in a broader Sahel alliance fighting a jihadist insurgency. All three since have seen civilian leaders toppled by their militaries, followed by protests, sprinkled with Russian flags and slogans calling for the ouster of French forces and diplomats. 

The latest coup last week in oil-rich Gabon — once a staunch and long-standing ally of Paris — has taken a different path. Unlike in Niger, there have been no planeloads of French expatriates returning home or massive anti-French rallies. Although Paris suspended military cooperation — even though it has 400 troops in Gabon — it offered a muted reaction to the toppling of long-term leader Ali Bongo by his reported cousin, following disputed presidential elections. 

Junta leader Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema has restored the transmission of French broadcasters France 24 and Radio France International, cut under Bongo — while the three Sahel coup countries, Burkina Faso, Mail and Niger,  continue to keep those news organizations off the air. 

Listening to Africans? 

Berges Miette, an Africa research associate at Sciences-Po Bordeaux University in France, Miette takes the long view of simmering anti-French sentiment. In the late 1980s, he says, France continued to support some hardline regimes that held onto power, despite a wave of political uprisings. 

African youth, Miette says, have now “stopped dreaming,” pinning their hopes instead on heading to Europe. 

While so far staying silent on Gabon, French President Emmanuel Macron has decried an “epidemic of putsches” in the Sahel. Two other coups — in Guinea and Chad — have also taken place since 2020, with a mixed response from France. The French have maintained ties with Chad, a strong military ally in the Sahel, drawing accusations of having a double standard. 

In a lengthy interview in Le Monde, Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna defended France’s Africa strategy. She differentiated the ousting of Niger’s democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, with the situation in Chad, where she said Paris counted on N’Djamena’s military government delivering on its promise to restore civilian rule. 

“One cannot see our relations with the continent through the single prism” of the Sahel crises, Colonna added. “It’s not 3,000 or 5,000 people demonstrating in a stadium in Niamey … that can resume our relations with 1.5 million Africans.”

France’s position, she said, “is to listen to Africans, not to decide in their place.” 

For a while, Macron — born after France’s last colony in Africa, Djibouti, gained its independence — seemed the right man for the job. 

“I am of a generation that doesn’t tell Africans what to do,” he told cheering students in Burkina Faso, shortly after his election six years ago. 

Macron pledged to return looted colonial-era artifacts, although only a fraction has been shipped back, and sought new ties elsewhere, including with Kenya, South Africa, Ethiopia and Angola. Like his recent predecessors, he maintained that the tangle of post-colonial business and political ties dubbed Francafrique was long dead. 

In February, Macron promised to draw down French forces in Africa and create a new “security partnership,” with bases on the continent transformed depending on African needs, and jointly managed with African staff. 

A coherent policy

Skeptics say Macron hasn’t always walked his talk. They point to many enduring trappings of French influence — from thousands of troops still stationed in Africa to a raft of longstanding mining concessions benefitting French companies, and the CFA franc, requiring West and Central African members to deposit half their foreign exchange reserves with the French treasury. 

Anti-French sentiment is on the rise in more stable countries, like Senegal, due to a youthful population untethered to the past, but very aware of the challenges of getting visas to France. 

Critics point to what they consider a series of French missteps, too, in the Sahel. Despite early wins, France’s decade-long counterterrorism operation there lost local trust, they say, and finally was shuttered last year amid a spreading Islamist insurgency. Even as France promotes democracy, skeptics describe a tacit acceptance of some authoritarian governments like Chad. 

“France needs to have a coherent policy,” says Sciences-Po researcher Miette, who argues anti-French sentiment is not the real threat to Paris, but rather “a profound questioning of France’s Africa policy.”

He counts among those who believe it is not too late for Paris to hit the reset button yet again. With other authoritarian regimes potentially at risk of falling — in Congo Brazzaville, Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea — the sooner, the better. 

“France has everything to win in changing its Africa policy,” Miette says. “It needs to go beyond talk and be concrete.” 
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At a critical moment in Ukraine’s counteroffensive, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered a changing of the guard, naming Rustem Umerov as the country’s new defense minister. 

On Wednesday, 338 of the 360 members of the Ukrainian parliament endorsed Umerov, a Crimean Tatar businessman, and a former parliamentarian. Observers see the replacement as part of Zelenskyy’s efforts to address corruption in his administration as the Ukrainian military strives to retake southern Ukraine and areas near the Crimean Peninsula.

A long-time financial supporter of the Crimean Tatar community and father of three, Umerov, a practicing Muslim, became a Member of the Ukrainian Parliament with the Holos party in 2014, championing a reformist and progressive agenda. 

Even before Russia’s full-scale invasion, he played a pivotal role in negotiations with Moscow. 

“He was part of the delegation that negotiated with Russia prior to the conflict. He played a key role in the grain deal due to his connections in Turkey, and our sources indicate his involvement in negotiations to secure the return of kidnapped Ukrainian children,” said Sevgil Musaeva, editor of the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper.

In an interview with Euronews in April 2022, Umerov was resolute, affirming that Ukraine would not compromise on territorial issues. “We want our partners to understand that the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine are a red line for us. Nevertheless, we are ready to hear any possible solutions that do not endanger our territory, our independence, and our dignity,” Umerov said in the interview.

Umerov brings with him a strong resumé as a skilled negotiator and has played a prominent role in efforts to return Crimea to Ukrainian control.

He serves as a co-chairman of the Crimean Platform, an international coordinating mechanism that seeks to negotiate the reversal of Russia’s 2014 unilateral annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. He is a member of the group responsible for developing the Strategy for the De-occupation and Reintegration of Crimea and Sevastopol, initiated by the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine in 2020.

Umerov has also led efforts to exchange political prisoners from Crimea and, as a member of parliament, helped shape legislation to provide social support to political prisoners and their families. 

“He is involved in a number of negotiations about the release of prisoners, as well as difficult negotiations about supplies of humanitarian support, weapons,” Tamila Tasheva, a prominent member of the Crimean Tatar community and the Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, told VOA, citing Umerov’s strong communication skills and negotiating experience with Persian Gulf countries and Turkey.

In an interview with Ukrainska Pravda in October 2022, Umerov underscored his longstanding commitment to human rights, going back to when Ukraine was under pro-Russian governments before the Maidan Revolution of 2014. 

“I was born in Uzbekistan, but I returned to Ukraine, where I engaged in activities related to European and NATO initiatives when they weren’t popular,” Umerov told the newspaper.

Why now?

The change was necessary at a time when Ukrainians have grown wary of corruption scandals at the Defense Ministry, according to political analyst and director at Think Tank Politics, Mykola Davydiuk. In addition to being a problem for Ukraine, “it was a bad message to our foreign partners,” Davydiuk told VOA.

Rumors of Reznikov’s impending replacement had been circulating for a year. In February 2023, Fox News quoted David Arakhamia, Ukraine’s parliament majority leader as suggesting that Oleksiy Reznikov might be replaced, although the president chose not to act at the time, allowing then-Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov to remain in his position.

The decision to let Reznikov stay at the time came despite a shakeup at the Defense Ministry that included the resignations of Deputy Defense Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov and Deputy Prosecutor General Oleksiy Symonenko in late January of the same year amid allegations of fraud and a coverup involving the purchase military food rations and equipment at inflated prices. 

The Defense Ministry denied any involvement in corrupt practices.

Last month, Ukrainian investigative reporter Mykhailo Tkach from Ukrainska Pravda exposed another scandal related to military procurement.

Reznikov himself does not face any charges in the corruption scandals. 

But the more recent revelation sparked new outrage among Ukrainians and sent a negative signal to Western partners about retaining Reznikov in his role, according to Davydiuk, who points to several other reasons for the timing of Reznikov’s removal.

“The start of the new political season, some unofficial push for replacement from the western partners, and preparation for the visit U.N. General Assembly to New York at the end of this month,” Davydiuk said, are other reasons, at a time when President Zelenskyy needs to address the corruption allegations, regain his credibility, and restore his positive image in the eyes of Western partners.

As Ukraine slowly retakes territory and sets its eyes on reclaiming Crimea, the job of ensuring victory is now on the shoulders of Umerov.
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The death toll from severe rainstorms that lashed parts of Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria increased to 11 Wednesday after rescue teams in the three neighboring countries recovered four more bodies.

A flash flood at a campsite in northwestern Turkey near the border with Bulgaria killed at least four people — with two found dead Wednesday — and carried away bungalow homes. Rescuers were still searching for two people reported missing at the campsite.

Another two people died in Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, where Tuesday’s storms inundated hundreds of homes and workplaces in several neighborhoods.

The victims in Istanbul included a 32-year-old Guinean citizen who was trapped inside his basement apartment in the low-income Kucukcekmece district, Turkish broadcaster HaberTurk TV reported. The other was a 57-year-old woman who died after being swept away by the floods in another neighborhood, the private DHA news agency reported.

The surging flood waters affected more than 1,750 homes and businesses in the city, according to the Istanbul governor’s office. They included a line of shops in the Ikitelli district, where the deluge dragged parked vehicles and mud into furniture stores, destroying the merchandise, DHA reported.

The floods also engulfed a parking area for containers and trucks on the city’s outskirts where people found safety by climbing on the roof of a restaurant, Turkish media reports said.

In Greece, a record rainfall caused at least two deaths near the central city of Volos and three people were reported missing. The fire department said one man was killed Tuesday when a wall buckled and fell on him, and the body of a woman was discovered Wednesday.

Authorities banned traffic in Volos, the nearby mountain region of Pilion and the resort island of Skiathos, where many households remained without electricity Wednesday. Traffic was also banned in another two regions of central Greece near Volos, while the storms were forecast to continue until at least Thursday afternoon.

In Bulgaria, a storm caused floods on the country’s southern Black Sea coast. The body of a missing tourist was recovered from the sea Wednesday, raising the overall death toll to three. Border police vessels and drones were assisting efforts to locate another two people still listed as missing.

TV footage showed cars and camper vans being swept out to sea in the southern resort town of Tsarevo, where authorities declared a state of emergency.

Most of the rivers in the region burst their banks and several bridges were destroyed, causing serious traffic problems.

Tourism Minister Zaritsa Dinkova said about 4,000 people were affected by the disaster along the entire southern stretch of Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast.

“There is a problem transporting tourists because it is dangerous to go by coach on the roads affected by the floods,” she added.
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Britain said Wednesday it will declare Russia’s Wagner mercenary group a terrorist organization.

The government said it would introduce an order in parliament that if approved would make it illegal to be a member of or support the group.  The order would also allow the government to seize Wagner’s assets.

Home Secretary Suella Braverman said Wagner “has been involved in looting, torture and barbarous murders. Its operations in Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa are a threat to global security.”

Wagner was involved in Russia’s war in Ukraine, and in June its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin carried out a brief rebellion against the Russian military. 

Prigozhin was reported killed in a plane crash last month.

Britain had previously sanctioned Wagner and Prigozhin.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press and Reuters
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Talks between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ended without an agreement to restart a deal under which Russia provided safe passage to ships moving grain across the Black Sea, including ships leaving from Ukrainian ports.

The deal, struck last year, was meant to safeguard the supply of agricultural commodities from Ukraine and Russia to global markets, where they account for a large percentage of the supply of wheat, corn, sunflower oil and other staple foods. Russia is waging war against Ukraine, including attacks on its Black Sea ports, making the region hazardous for shipping.

While it was in place, starting in July 2022, the deal allowed more than 1,000 vessels carrying 32.9 million metric tons of grain to transit the Black Sea safely. Russia announced this July that it would not renew the arrangement, causing an immediate halt to grain shipments.

Cutting off shipments from Ukraine threatens to worsen a global food crisis that has seen the price of staple foodstuffs soar, making it difficult for people in many developing countries to feed themselves, and straining the aid budgets of global relief agencies.

Putin’s demands

Speaking at a press conference in the Russian city of Sochi, where he and Erdogan met on Monday, Putin said Russia would only return to the deal if the West fulfilled what he said were its obligations under the agreement, including a promise to lift any sanctions on the export of Russian food and fertilizers. He said that sanctions remain in place that are keeping Russian agricultural exports from making it to global markets.

The large number of economic penalties imposed on Russia by Western countries because of its invasion of Ukraine do not include sanctions on food and fertilizer exports. However, other sanctions, including the severing of Russian banks from the global payments system and a refusal to allow Western companies to insure Russian ships, have sharply curtailed grain exports.

Putin has described this situation as a Western violation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

“We are not against this deal. We are ready to immediately return to it as soon as the promises made to us are fulfilled. That’s all,” Putin said. “So far, no obligations toward Russia have been fulfilled.”

The U.S. and other Western countries deny Putin’s claim that they have failed to live up to the terms of the deal. When Russia announced its decision to back out in July, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken released a statement that read, in part, “Despite Russia’s claims, the U.N. has facilitated record Russian exports of food, coordinating with the private sector and with the U.S., E.U., and U.K. to clarify any concerns raised by Russia. As we have consistently made clear, no G7 sanctions are in place on Russian food and fertilizer exports. Russia unfortunately does not contribute to the World Food Program, and its exports focus on higher income countries, not the world’s poorest.”

Erdogan optimistic

Erdogan, who helped broker the original deal in 2022, said he still believes it is possible to restart the agreement.

“We believe that we will reach a solution that will meet the expectations in a short time,” he told reporters at the news conference on Monday.

The Turkish leader also called on Ukraine to moderate its approach to the agreement.

“Ukraine needs to especially soften its approaches in order for it to be possible for joint steps to be taken with Russia,” Erdogan said.

He did not specify the kind of changes in Ukraine’s approach he was recommending.

Also on Monday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba addressed Erdogan’s comments, saying that Kyiv is willing to talk but would not bow to what he described as Russian blackmail.

He told reporters that if Ukraine makes concessions to Russia now, the Kremlin will only demand further concessions in the future.

Argument over impact

Both Russia and the Western countries demanding a restart of the grain deal use data from the U.N.-affiliated Black Sea Grain Initiative-Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul to support their version of the deal’s importance.

Russian officials dispute Western claims that Putin is weaponizing food and disproportionately affecting poor countries, arguing that the United Nations’ own data shows that 80% of grain exports that shipped while the deal was in place went to the world’s high-income and upper-middle-income nations. Western officials point to data from the same source, showing that 57% of the grain went to developing countries.

The discrepancy is largely explained by the fact that the U.N. classifies China as both a developing nation and an upper-middle-income nation. Grain shipments to China accounted for 24% of the shipments allowed under the deal.

Relief agencies clear

Among aid organizations around the world, there is little dispute that the impact of the suspension of the deal will be extremely negative for the global poor, both by pushing prices paid by end-consumers higher in the near term and by reducing supply in the longer term.

An analysis by the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute, published after Russia withdrew from the deal, warned that in addition to making existing grain more expensive to ship and thus more costly for global consumers, the high transportation costs will reduce farmers’ income, making them likely to plant less grain in the future.

“The reduced production also poses risks for global markets. With global grain stocks at low levels and little rebuilding this current year, prices will remain volatile and responsive to potential production shortfalls,” the group found. “Thus, a diminished Ukraine leaves a smaller buffer if major global producers fall short.”
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Vladimir Putin’s Russia has sharply constricted the space for free expression in recent years, but some independent pollsters who fled the country have not abandoned their work.

They are still trying to track Russian public opinion on key topics, including the war in Ukraine, providing a rare window into how the Russian public views the war’s dramatic turns over the last 18 months.

Voice of America’s Russian Service contacted one of these researchers — Elena Koneva — about how she and her team approach their work phoning people in Russia and asking for their opinions.

“Analysts have learned to deal with and avoid authoritarian pressure,” said Koneva, founder of independent research agency ExtremeScan.

“For example, when we ask people about support for the war, we give the option to evade the answer: ‘Do you support, do not support, find it difficult to answer or do not want to answer this question?’ The new position — ‘I don’t want to answer this question’ — is almost a protest.”

She said researchers believe that people who disagree with the war often answer this way. One participant said, “Thank you for the opportunity not to testify against myself.”

At first glance, the group’s most recent polls from Russia continue to show broad public support for the war.

Sixteen months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the majority of respondents still support the war, and only 20% say they are against.

Overall, researchers say they have tracked just a 9% fall in support for the war last year.

The number of respondents who say Russia should “cease hostilities while maintaining the occupied territories” has more than doubled since last summer, from 11% to 28%.

Core supporters

Koneva said her research group has focused on examining the opinions of the core audience that supports Russia’s war in Ukraine.

She said after people express general support for the war, researchers use more questions to better understand how they view the war and its impact on their lives.

“For example, a person says, ‘I support,’ but then researchers will follow up with questions to determine if they are ready to go to war, ready to donate to the Russian army or expect benefits from a possible victory,” Koneva explained.

Because researchers have watched as censorship and repression grow, they see people’s answers on two levels: those who generally declare support, and those who follow up that declaration with real support for specific political decisions.

As a result, researchers estimate that the core group of war supporters numbers around 30% to 35% of the total number of survey respondents.

These are the convinced supporters of the war. If researchers exclude this group and also exclude the 20% of Russians who admit they oppose the war, that leaves about half of the country’s population who researchers say support the war only at the “declarative level.”

‘Declarative supporters’

Koneva said researchers found that people in this group, the largest single segment of the population, have contradictory attitudes toward the war, consisting of narratives from both sides of the conflict.

Oleg Zhuravlev, a researcher at the Public Sociology Laboratory, another independent research center operating remotely, has done more in-depth interviews with this group of Russians to understand how their opinions have shifted from the first days of the war to now.

He said for many people in this group, opinions changed in June 2022 when many realized the conflict was becoming protracted and not the fast military operation initially promised.

“The feeling of the inevitability of war from the life of Russians, the feeling that the war is now with us, and we are with this life, caused the emergence of new meanings of war,” Zhuravlev said.

“So, many of our informants began to reason as follows: Maybe this war is immoral, but it was inevitable, which means that it remains to wish good luck to our side in this conflict,” he said.

Koneva saw similar patterns in her data among this group as their opinions shifted.

“After the inspiration of some and the anger of others, it is clear that the war is real, and it is for a long time. Fatigue and apathy set in,” she said, as people adjusted to panic-buying, high inflation and unemployment, and the departure of foreign businesses.

Some 38% of respondents reported the war “has reduced their options or ruined their plans.” Among them, 14% of respondents reported a job loss, 36% a decrease in income and 56% reported spending more savings on food.

What events affect public opinion?

Throughout the war, researchers have been trying to understand what factors would reduce public support in Russia.

Koneva said initially, when Russians heard about the damage and losses suffered by Ukrainians, Russian people looked more critically at the reason the Ukrainians were suffering.

“But Russian propaganda finds an “antidote” to any truth,” Koneva said. “In the minds of most Russians, the horror of the town of Bucha [where Russian forces carried out mass killings of civilians] has been supplanted by incredible disinformation about the staging of terrible events.”

Koneva said that in June 2023, respondents were asked to send “virtual telegrams to ordinary Ukrainian citizens.”

The most popular responses, a third of all telegrams, were expressions of sympathy, support and “calls to be patient until Russia releases them,” and a “reminder of the brotherhood of the two peoples.”

Koneva also studied how public opinion shifted after Moscow announced a mobilization campaign in September 2022 that resulted in the conscription of certain people.

Even then, the support rate decreased by only a few percentage points, from 58% to 52%. But it recovered to 57% after three weeks in mid-October 2022.

And when it comes to Russian war casualties, Koneva said the losses have been successfully covered up by the country’s strict censorship measures.

“The Russians do not understand the real numbers of losses. … The media gives only authorized information, and the [country at large] ‘absorbs’ losses,” she explained.

Koneva said public opinion in Russia increasingly seems resigned to a longer-term war.
…

Arms negotiations between Russia and North Korea are actively advancing, a U.S. official said on Tuesday and warned leader Kim Jong Un that his country would pay a price for supplying Russia with weapons to use in Ukraine.

Providing weapons to Russia “is not going to reflect well on North Korea, and they will pay a price for this in the international community,” U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters at the White House.

The Kremlin said earlier on Tuesday it had “nothing to say” about statements by U.S. officials that Kim planned to travel to Russia this month to meet President Vladimir Putin and discuss weapons supplies to Moscow.

Kim expects discussions about weapons to continue, Sullivan said, including at leader level and “perhaps even in person.”

“We have continued to squeeze Russia’s defense industrial base,” Sullivan said, and Moscow is now “looking to whatever source they can find” for goods like ammunition.

“We will continue to call on North Korea to abide by its public commitments not to supply weapons to Russia that will end up killing Ukrainians,” Sullivan said.

On Monday, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said Kim and Putin could be planning to meet, and The New York Times cited unnamed U.S. and allied officials as saying Kim plans to travel to Russia as soon as next week to meet Putin. Asked if he could confirm the talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “No, I can’t. There’s nothing to say.”

As Russia’s isolation over its war in Ukraine has grown, it has seen increasing value in North Korea, according to political analysts. For North Korea’s part, relations with Russia have not always been as warm as they were at the height of the Soviet Union, but now the country is reaping clear benefits from Moscow’s need for friends.

Moscow-Pyongyang defense cooperation

A North Korean Defense Ministry official in November said Pyongyang has “never had ‘arms dealings’ with Russia” and has “no plan to do so in the future.”

Moscow and Pyongyang have promised to boost defense cooperation.

Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who visited Pyongyang in July to attend weapons displays that included North Korea’s banned ballistic missiles, said on Monday the two countries are discussing the possibility of joint military exercises.

“Just as you can tell a person by their friends, you can tell a country by the company it keeps,” said Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow with Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia program. “In Russia’s case, that company now consists largely of fellow rogue states.”

The trip would be Kim’s first visit abroad in more than four years, and the first since the coronavirus pandemic.

While he made more trips abroad than his father as leader, Kim’s travel is often shrouded in secrecy and heavy security. Unlike his father, who was said to be averse to flying, Kim has flown his personal Russian-made jet for some of his trips. But U.S. officials told The New York Times that he may take an armored train across the land border that North Korea shares with Russia.

Kim is likely to want to emphasize a sense of Russian backing, and may seek deals on arms sales, aid and sending laborers to Russia, said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Kookmin University.

The United States in August imposed sanctions on three entities it accused of being tied to arms deals between North Korea and Russia.

North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests since 2006 and had been testing various missiles over recent years.

Russia has joined China in opposing new sanctions on North Korea, blocking a U.S.-led push and publicly splitting the U.N. Security Council for the first time since it started punishing Pyongyang in 2006.
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The Spanish soccer federation fired women’s national team coach Jorge Vilda on Tuesday, less than three weeks after his team won the Women’s World Cup title and amid the controversy involving suspended federation president Luis Rubiales.

The coach was among those who applauded Rubiales when he refused to resign despite facing widespread criticism for kissing player Jenni Hermoso on the lips without her consent during the title celebrations in Sydney last month.

Rubiales, who also grabbed his crotch in a lewd victory gesture after the final, has been provisionally suspended by FIFA and is facing a Spanish government case against him for the conduct that prompted a storm of criticism and led to widespread calls for his resignation.

Vilda later said Rubiales’ behavior was improper. Men’s coach Luis de la Fuente also applauded Rubiales’ diatribe against what he called “false feminists,” and apologized on Friday for having clapped in what he described an “inexcusable human error.”

The captains of Spain’s men’s national team on Monday condemned Rubiales’ “unacceptable behavior” in a show of support for the Women’s World Cup-winning team.

Vilda was at the helm at the World Cup even though some players rebelled against him less than a year ago in a crisis that put his job in jeopardy. Fifteen players stepped away from the national team for their mental health, demanding a more professional environment. Only three returned to the squad that won the World Cup.

Vilda was heavily backed by Rubiales throughout the process.

The president currently in charge of the Spanish soccer federation, Pedro Rocha, released a letter on Tuesday apologizing to the soccer world and to society in general for Rubiales’ behavior.

Rocha said the federation had the responsibility to ask for “the most sincere apologies to the soccer world as a whole,” as well as to soccer institutions, fans, players — especially of the women’s national team — “for the totally unacceptable behavior of its highest representative.”

“In no way his behavior represents the values of Spanish society as a whole, its institutions, its representatives, its athletes and the Spanish sports leaders,” Rocha wrote.
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