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A slick new video that has gone viral on Russian social media platforms shows a taxi driver, a security guard and a fitness coach at work.

“Did you really dream of being this kind of defender?” the footage released by the Russian defense ministry says.

The video, set to dramatic music, then depicts armed men in full combat gear walking across a battlefield in thick fog.

“You’re a real man! Be one!” says the ad, encouraging Russians to sign a contract with the defense ministry.

Moscow has launched an aggressive military recruitment campaign complete with videos and ubiquitous billboards as Kyiv gears up for a counter-offensive after months of stalemate in eastern Ukraine.

“Our job is defending the motherland,” reads one of the billboards in the capital, showing three soldiers under a big blue sky.

“An honorable job and a decent salary,” says another slogan.

Last September, President Vladimir Putin announced a “partial” military mobilization — Russia’s first since World War II — sending shockwaves across the country and prompting tens of thousands to flee.

Unwilling to announce a second mobilization drive, Moscow has instead opted for a massive PR campaign, hoping to lure Russians with financial incentives.

Tapping into macho culture

The authorities have not disclosed their target but various estimates say Moscow could be trying to recruit 400,000 volunteers.

“The authorities are almost certainly seeking to delay any new, overt mandatory mobilization for as long as possible to minimize domestic dissent,” British military intelligence said this week.

Those who sign a contract with the Russian defense ministry are promised a monthly salary of at least 204,000 rubles ($2, 450).

A notice on the Moscow mayor’s website specifies that servicemen will be paid “at least 204,000 rubles” in “the zone of the special military operation”, the Kremlin’s official term for the offensive in Ukraine.

Those who take part in offensives are promised a daily bonus of 8,000 rubles (around $100) and at least 50,000 rubles (around $615) for capturing or destroying enemy weapons and military equipment.

Some praised the recruitment drive.

“In Russia, this is a good amount to support your family, and even your parents,” Pyotr Lipka, a 21-year-old student from the southern city of Volgograd, told AFP.

“This makes sense: if a person defends his motherland, why shouldn’t he get paid?” Lipka said, adding that signing a contract was better than being mobilized.

The PR campaign in support of the army builds on Russia’s macho culture, promoting the image of a “real man” as strong and patriotic.

Last year, the authorities admitted embarrassing mistakes in their troop call-up for Ukraine, after some public outrage over students, older or sick people being mistakenly ordered to report for duty.

‘Avoiding a new shock’

Yevgeny Krapivin, 41, served as a professional soldier when Russia fought Chechen separatists in 1999-2002 and would like to sign up again to fight in Ukraine.

He said recruitment officers first turned him away, pointing to his age. “Then they told me: ‘Wait. You can get a call at any moment’,” he told AFP in central Moscow. “I am ready.”

The launch of the new recruitment drive has coincided with preparations for May 9 celebrations marking the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, which has reached a cult status under Putin.

This month Putin approved a controversial bill to create a digital draft system that could stop men from leaving the country.

Kremlin critics say the bill will greatly facilitate mobilizing men to fight and clamp down on those avoiding the draft as the assault on Ukraine stretches into a second year.

Political observers say the Kremlin is keen to keep a tight lid on social discontent in Russia as economic troubles mount.

“Authorities clearly want to avoid a new shock, a new stress for society,” Denis Volkov, head of independent pollster Levada Centre, told AFP, referring to a military mobilization.

“And they’ve opted for a different scenario: to recruit volunteers,” he said.

The campaign could be successful, especially in Russia’s small, poverty-stricken towns, he added.

The new approach seemed to be working, Volkov said.

“We are not seeing any of the panic that there was in autumn,” he said.

“No one is queueing up to go across the border.”
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The graves are dug in the morning. Four plots, each two meters deep in the section of a cemetery in a central Ukrainian city devoted to the nation’s fallen soldiers. 

The day begins for Oleh Itsenko, 29, and Andrii Kuznetsov, 23, shortly after dawn, when the two diggers report for the grueling work. A day in their lives tells the story of Ukraine’s mounting war dead. They won’t be finished until sunset. 

With a tractor equipped with an earth auger, they bore into the ground. Armed with shovels, they go about carving out perfect rectangles with precision, the final resting place for the country’s soldiers killed in fierce battles on Ukraine’s eastern front. 

There will be four funerals today in the main cemetery of Kryvyi Rih, an iron-mining city 400 kilometers from the capital, Kyiv. 

“It’s hard,” says Itsenko, a former metal worker. “But someone’s got to do it.” 

In Ukraine, even the business of death has become routine as funerals are held for soldiers across the country almost every day, at times multiple times a day. The war’s death toll is kept a closely guarded secret by government and military officials, but it can be measured in other ways: through the long, working hours of the two young men, the repetitive rhythm of shovels and spades scooping up soil, the daily processions of weeping mourners. 

Western officials estimate there have been at least 100,000 Ukrainians soldiers killed or wounded since Russia’s full-scale invasion began last year. Estimates for Moscow’s war dead and wounded are double that as Ukrainian military officials report Russia is using wave tactics to exhaust resources and deplete their morale. 

Many soldiers have died fighting in Bakhmut, in what has become the war’s longest battle, and among the deadliest. Ukrainian forces in the city are surrounded from three directions by advancing Russian invaders and are determined to hold on to the city to deprive Moscow of any territorial victories. In the process, many Ukrainian servicemen have died. 

At 11 a.m., when the first coffin arrives, the two men lean back, exhausted, under the late morning sun. Shovels to the side, they peer from under baseball caps as the familiar scene, now a routine, unfolds. 

The family of Andrii Vorobiov, 51, weep as they enter the premises. Dozens more mourners arrive in buses. The deceased’s fellow servicemen weep as the coffin, draped in the yellow and blue of the national flag, is placed on the gravel. Vorobiov died in an aerial bomb attack in Bakmut, leaving behind three children. 

When the priest is done reciting the funeral rites, Vorobiov’s wife throws her hands over his coffin and wails. His daughter holds his medals, won for acts of bravery in the battlefield. 

“I won’t see you again,” she screams. “You won’t come to breakfast. I can’t bear it!” 

Between tears and screams, Itsenko and Kuznetsov wait for the last handful of dirt to be tossed onto the lowered coffin. Then they can begin the work of filling Vorobiov’s grave. 

The outpouring of grief is normal, Kuznetsov said. He isn’t affected most of the time because they are strangers. 

But once, he was asked to help carry the coffin because there weren’t enough pallbearers. He couldn’t hold back his anguish in the middle of that crowd. 

He didn’t even know the guy, he reflected. 

Kuznetsov never imagined he would be a gravedigger. He has a university degree in technology. A good degree, he was told by his teachers. 

“If it’s so good, then why am I doing this?” he asked, panting as he shoveled dirt into Vorobiov’s grave. 

There were no jobs, and he needed the money, he said finally. 

Itsenko lost his job when the war broke out, and learned the local cemetery needed diggers. Without any options, he didn’t need to think twice. 

It is 1:30 p.m. While the two young men are still working to fill the first grave, another funeral is starting. 

The family of Andrii Romanenko, 31, erects a tent to protect the coffin from the afternoon sun. The priest reads the rites, and the wailing starts again. 

Romanenko died when he was hit by a mortar defending the city of Bakhmut. A fellow serviceman, Valery, says they had served together in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk but parted ways in December. 

“He went too soon,” says Valery, sighing deeply. He speaks on the condition his last name be withheld, citing Ukrainian military protocols for active soldiers. 

As mourners bid their last farewell and toss earth into Romanenko’s grave, Itsenko and Kuznetsov still have not finished filling the first. 

“Got to hurry,” says Itsenko, wiping the sweat from his brow. 

There will be two more funerals in the next hour. And tomorrow, there will be another three funerals. Neither man can afford to stop. 

“What we are doing is for the greater good,” Itsenko says. “Our heroes deserve a proper resting place.” 

But he, his family’s only breadwinner, wouldn’t want to be fighting alongside them. 

“It’s better here,” he says, patting Vorobiov’s grave with his shovel. Kuznetsov plunges the cross into the earth, the last step before the flowers are laid. 

One done, three more to go. 
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German authorities have arrested a Syrian man on suspicion of planning to carry out an explosives attack motivated by Islamic extremism, officials said Tuesday.

Federal police said officers arrested the 28-year-old man early Tuesday in the northern city of Hamburg based on a court-issued warrant for suspected terrorism financing offenses.

Investigators say the man is suspected of trying to obtain substances online that would have allowed him to manufacturer an explosive belt “in order to carry out an attack against civilian targets.”

Police say the man was encouraged and supported in his action by his 24-year-old brother, who lives in the southern town of Kempten. German news agency Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that the younger man was also detained.

The brothers, whose names weren’t immediately released, were described by federal police as being motivated by “radical Islamist and jihadist” views.

Authorities said they had no information indicating a concrete target for the planned attack.

Search yields chemical substances

Police searched properties in Hamburg and Kempten, seizing large amounts of evidence including chemical substances, officials said. Some 250 officers were involved in the operation.

Germany’s top security official thanked police, saying their actions “have prevented possible Islamist attack plans.”

Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said the case showed that the danger of Islamic extremism remained high and pledged that German security agencies would continue to take all information about such threats seriously.

“Germany remains a direct target of Islamist terrorist organizations,” she said. “Islamist-motivated lone perpetrators are another significant threat.”

Attack at Duisburg gym

In a separate case, authorities in western Germany said Tuesday that they are investigating a possible extremist motive in an attack at a gym in Duisburg last week. A 26-year-old Syrian was arrested days after the attack, in which four men were seriously wounded and one of them remains in life-threatening condition.

Duesseldorf prosecutors said a review of the suspect’s cellphone indicated that “there may have been an Islamist motive” behind the attack but declined to elaborate. The man is currently being held on suspicion of attempted murder and other offenses.
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Lithuania’s parliament passed legislation Tuesday to make it legal to deny entry to asylum seekers, the EU member’s latest move to fight illegal immigration from Belarus to the dismay of rights activists.

The Baltic state had already been engaging in so-called pushbacks since 2021, when thousands of migrants and refugees — mainly from the Middle East and Africa — began trying to enter the European Union via Lithuania, Latvia and Poland.

The EU argued that the influx was a “hybrid attack” orchestrated by the Belarusian regime in retaliation for international sanctions against Minsk.

The number of attempted crossings has since fallen, but Lithuanian border guards still deny entry to up to several dozen migrants a day.

“When it comes to national security and human rights, there are no easy solutions, but also there are no alternatives,” Lithuanian Interior Minister Agne Bilotaite told journalists.

“Our country must defend itself,” she added.

Bilotaite said authorities had intel that Belarus was negotiating new direct flight routes to Minsk with Iran and Iraq, which suggested “possible new [migrant] flows.”

“We have to be ready and we need instruments,” she said.

Last week, Amnesty International warned that the law would “green-light torture.”

The legislation still requires approval by the president and activists said they would call for a veto.

“These amendments are against both international law and our own commitments,” Jurate Juskaite, the head of Lithuanian Centre for Human Rights, told AFP.

“They are immoral, they endanger the life and health of the people trying to enter,” she added.

Last year, Lithuania finished building a four-meter razor wire fence along the border with Belarus to tackle illegal immigration.

It spans around 550 kilometers, while the entire border is nearly 700 kilometers long.

Neighboring Poland has also regularly resorted to pushbacks at its border with Belarus in recent years.

The controversial action is allowed under Polish law — through an interior ministry decree and the foreigners act — though in two separate cases, courts found it had violated refugee rights.
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Britain’s Prince William has settled a phone-hacking claim against Rupert Murdoch’s UK newspaper arm for a “huge sum” after a secret deal struck with Buckingham Palace, lawyers for the heir’s brother Prince Harry said in court documents.

Harry, the younger son of King Charles, is suing Murdoch’s News Group Newspapers (NGN) at the High Court in London for multiple unlawful acts allegedly committed on behalf of its tabloids, the Sun and now defunct News of the World, from the mid-1990s until 2016.

In preliminary hearings this week, NGN, which has paid out millions of pounds to settle more than a thousand phone-hacking cases, is seeking to strike out claims by the prince and British actor Hugh Grant, arguing they should have taken action sooner.

It also denies anyone from the Sun was involved in any unlawful activity.

In a submission to the court, Harry’s legal team said the reason he had not brought action before was because a deal had been agreed between NGN and the “institution” — Buckingham Palace — to hold off any claims until the conclusion of other outstanding phone-hacking litigation.

“In responding to this bid by NGN to prevent his claims going to trial, the claimant has had to make public the details of this secret agreement, as well as the fact that his brother, His Royal Highness, Prince William, has recently settled his claim against NGN behind the scenes,” his lawyers said.

In a witness statement, Harry said NGN had settled William’s claim “for a huge sum of money in 2020… without any of the public being told, and seemingly with some favourable deal in return for him going ‘quietly’ so to speak.”

William’s office said it could not comment on ongoing legal proceedings and NGN had no comment.

During a criminal trial brought against News of the World journalists and others in 2014, its former royal editor Clive Goodman said in the mid-2000s he had hacked the voicemails of Harry as well as those of William, and William’s wife Kate.

Her phone was hacked 155 times, William’s 35 and Harry’s nine times, Goodman said.

In his 31-page statement, Harry railed against senior NGN figures and his own family, who he has accused of being in cahoots with the press to protect their image, saying the secret deal was struck to avoid a member of the royal family in the witness box.

Buckingham Palace “wanted to avoid at all costs” the reputational damage caused by publication in the 1990s of details of an “intimate telephone conversation” between Charles and the now Queen Consort Camilla, when his father was still married to his mother Princess Diana, his statement said.
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German authorities have detained a Syrian man on suspicion of planning to carry out an explosives attack motivated by Islamic extremism, officials said Tuesday.

Federal police said officers detained the 28-year-old man early Tuesday in the northern city of Hamburg.

Investigators say the man is suspected of trying to obtain substances online that would have allowed him to manufacturer an explosive belt “in order to carry out an attack against civilian targets.”

Police say the man was encouraged and supported in his action by his 24-year-old brother, who lives in the southern town of Kempten. The men, whose names weren’t immediately released, are described as being motivated by “radical Islamist and jihadist” views.

Authorities said they had no information indicating a concrete target for the planned attack.

Police searched properties in Hamburg and Kempten, seizing large amounts of evidence including chemical substances, officials said. Some 250 officers were involved in the operation.
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EU countries Tuesday gave the final approval to the biggest revamp to date of Europe’s carbon market, which is set to make it more costly to pollute and sharpen the 27-member bloc’s main tool for cutting carbon dioxide emissions.

The world’s first major carbon trading system has since 2005 forced power plants and factories to buy permits when they emit CO2 and has cut emissions from those sectors by 43%.

European Union members approved a deal agreed last year by negotiators from EU countries and Parliament to reform the carbon market to cut emissions by 62% from 2005 levels by 2030, which is designed to deliver the EU’s emissions-cutting targets.

After nearly two years of EU negotiations, the member states’ approval means the policy will now pass into law. The EU Parliament approved the deal last week.

The reform is set to hike the cost of polluting for sectors including cement manufacturing, aviation and shipping, while also raising billions of euros through CO2 permit sales, for national governments to invest in green measures.

Heavy industries will lose the free CO2 permits they currently receive by 2034, while airlines will lose theirs from 2026, exposing them to higher CO2 costs. Emissions from ships will be added to the scheme from 2024.

Countries also approved the EU’s world-first policy to phase in a levy on imports of high-carbon goods from 2026, targeting steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen.

The carbon border levy aims to put EU industries and foreign competitors on a level footing, to avoid EU producers relocating to regions with less stringent environmental rules.

The price of EU carbon permits has soared in recent years, boosted by anticipation of the reforms. EU carbon permits were trading at around 88 euros per ton Tuesday, having more than tripled in value since the start of 2020.

EU countries also backed plans to launch a new EU carbon market covering emissions from fuels used in cars and buildings in 2027, plus a $97 billion EU fund to support consumers affected by the costs.
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The European Union’s top diplomat described as good news China’s distancing from controversial comments from one of its envoys who questioned the sovereignty of Ukraine and other former Soviet states.    

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell’s remarks come after China’s ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, sparked an uproar by suggesting countries emerging from the ashes of the Soviet Union did not have status under international law.     

“They [China] issued a tweet yesterday saying they hope that this statement or remark issued was not the official position of China,” Borrell said. “And now we have the concrete answer from China that it’s not. So, it’s good news.”     

Made during an interview with French media, Ambassador Lu’s remarks add to European unease about China’s growing economic and political clout — and its stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.    

Beijing says it wants to be a mediator ending the war. But some EU member states are skeptical — especially those once part of the Soviet Union.     

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said at an EU foreign ministers meeting Monday in Luxembourg that “We’ve been always saying that we do not trust China as a mediator, as a possible mediator. It definitely has chosen a side. It’s sided with Russia, politically.”    

Ammunitions for Ukraine was another top item at the Luxembourg meeting. The EU has promised to deliver a million artillery shells or missiles to Kyiv within a year. But member states are at odds over whether to procure them only within the EU — France’s position to boost the bloc’s defense industry — or tap other countries.    

“I understand those who want to see the European military industry flourishing. Indeed, we need that. But if we delay currently, Ukrainians might not push as far and as successfully as they could with our assistance,” Landsbergis argued. “Therefore, speed is the main factor that we should be looking for now.”    

The EU’s Borrell predicts member states would finalize a plan to procure ammunitions for Ukraine within days.   
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In the aftermath of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine last year, global attitudes toward Russia’s leadership have shifted dramatically, with large majorities of the population in dozens of countries reporting disapproval of the Kremlin.

Data compiled from surveys of thousands of people in 137 countries and regions showed a marked decline in approval of the Kremlin, according to a report released by the Gallup organization on Tuesday. Globally, 57% of respondents reported that they disapprove of Russia’s leadership in 2022, up from just 38% the year before.

Only 21% of respondents said that they approve of Russia’s leadership, down from 33% in 2021. Both the approval and disapproval figures were the most extreme Gallup has measured since it began asking the question as part of its annual survey tracking attitudes toward global leaders in 2007.

“It’s incredible,” Zacc Ritter, a senior researcher with Gallup and the lead author of the report, told VOA. “I don’t think we’ve seen a shift like this before in Gallup’s data for any country.”

Negative shift everywhere

While peoples’ impression of Russia’s leadership varied across individual countries in the survey, the overarching result was a worsening of the public image of its leadership across the board.

The shift was most prominent in Latin America and the Caribbean, where the median approval rating fell by 21 percentage points, to 16%, while the median disapproval rating jumped by 30 points, to 61%.

Even in parts of Africa and Asia where Russian influence remains strong, the change was negative. In North Africa and the Middle East, disapproval rates rose by 12 points, to 55%. In sub-Saharan Africa, where Russia maintains active influence operations, disapproval rates still spiked from 21% to 32%, worsening even in countries whose leaders have refused to condemn the war.

Still, sub-Saharan Africa was the only region polled by Gallup in which the median approval rating of Russia’s leadership (35%) remained above the median disapproval rating.

State-level differences

The data collected by Gallup indicates significant regional differences in attitudes toward Russia’s leadership, with disapproval most concentrated in Europe, North America, Australia, South Korea and Japan. Feelings toward Russia were more ambivalent in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

Unsurprisingly, Ukraine registered the highest rate of disapproval, at 96%, followed closely by Poland, at 95%. The U.S., Canada and 10 different European countries registered disapproval ratings of 90% or above.

In Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed as a possession by China and itself under constant threat of invasion, the shift against Russia was large. In 2021, just 26% of Taiwanese surveyed expressed disapproval of Russia’s leadership. By 2022, that number had leapt to 72%.

Another outlier was Kazakhstan, the former Soviet republic on Russia’s eastern border. Normally a reliable ally of Moscow’s, Kazakhstan showed a major shift in attitude between 2021 and 2022. Approval of Russian leadership fell to 29% from 55% and disapproval jumped to 50% from just 20%.

Little surprise

Steven Pifer, a former senior U.S. State Department official who also served as ambassador to Ukraine, told VOA that it is no secret that Russia has seriously damaged its international standing, particularly in Europe.

“Certainly when you look at how Europeans now look at Russia, I think it’s a much more negative image than was the case before this war began,” said Pifer, who is now an affiliate of Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. “Russian actions are so at odds with the fundamental principles that we thought had been the basis for European security… that now, when they talk about security in Europe, it’s not about security that involves Russia. It’s about security against Russia.”

On the broader global stage, he said, it will be difficult for most world leaders to engage meaningfully with senior Russian officials and hard to trust them on the occasions when engagement is possible.

“Start at the top. Vladimir Putin has been indicted for war crime. It’s really difficult to see how any Western leader can sit down with him at this point. There’s a reputational cost to doing that,” Pifer said.

He said the willingness of senior Russian diplomats to parrot obvious lies and distortions about the war that have been put forward by the Kremlin will make re-engagement all the more difficult.

“Russian diplomats who I used to have some respect for are just out there, basically saying the most bizarre things,” Pifer said. “That will come back to bite them. These guys have lost a lot of credibility, and it’s going to be hard to see how they get it back.”

Similar findings

Although its sample size makes the Gallup survey stand out, its findings echo those of a number of other major research firms that have explored the decline in Russia’s global standing, including the Pew Research Center and Ipsos.

Last month, Brand Finance, the U.K.-based consultancy that issues an annual Global Soft Power index, reported that in the previous year, Russia was the only country to see its soft power decline over the previous year.

Soft power, which refers to a country’s ability to affect the behavior of other nations without resorting to force, derives from many things, including economic ties and cultural influences.

“While nations have turned to soft power to restore trade and tourism after a devastating health crisis, the world order has been disrupted by the hard power of the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Brand Finance Chairman and CEO David Haigh said in a statement. “An event that would be hard to believe were it not for the intensity of the images we have been seeing for months and the consequences the conflict is having on politics and the economy alike.”
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The U.K. government on Monday said it was applying for a court order to stop a strike by nurses in the state-run National Health Service from going ahead.   

Health Secretary Steve Barclay said he was acting on a request from NHS Employers, which represents hospital groups in England and Wales, to declare the planned walk-out on May 2 “unlawful.”   

Nurses are due to start a new strike on the evening of April 30 and end two days later, on May 2. The government is arguing that the nurses’ union mandate for a walkout covers only the first day of the planned strike, and thus the second day would be illegal.   

“Despite attempts by my officials to resolve the situation over the weekend, I have been left with no choice but to proceed with legal action,” Barclay said.  

“I firmly support the right to take industrial action within the law — but the government cannot stand by and let a plainly unlawful strike action go ahead nor ignore the request of NHS Employers.   

“We must also protect nurses by ensuring they are not asked to take part in an unlawful strike,” he said.   

Members of the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) earlier this month voted to reject a 5% government pay offer to end their industrial action.   

Union bosses then announced an escalation of walkouts to include staff in emergency departments, intensive and cancer care units for the first time.   

But that has led to fears about the provision of critical care for patients, and the worsening of a growing backlog in appointments and procedures.   

The government is relying on legislation that stipulates unions have six months from the initial vote for strike action to walk out.   

It maintains the RCN’s lawful ballot mandate ends at 11:59 pm on May 1. 

The RCN has accused NHS Employers of “seeking to discredit” the action on May 2 and will “strongly resist any application for injunctive relief from any or all NHS employers.” 
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Russia has threatened to scrap the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which enables the safe export of grain from Ukrainian ports onto the world market. The threat comes as members of the G-7 group of rich nations are reportedly mulling further sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is due to discuss the grain deal with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in New York this week.

Export ban

The G-7 countries are considering a near total ban on all exports to Russia, Japan’s Kyodo news agency reported April 21, citing Japanese government sources.

“The G-7 countries have already stopped exporting a wide range of items to Russia, including products that can be used for military purposes and luxury goods. But the latest plan could expand the trade embargo to used cars, tires, cosmetic items and clothing,” Kyodo reported.

The G-7 includes Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, currently deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, wrote on the social media site Telegram that if the G-7 implements such a ban, Moscow will terminate the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

“This idea from the idiots at the G-7 about a total ban of exports to our country by default is beautiful in that it implies a reciprocal ban on imports from our country, including categories of goods that are the most sensitive for the G-7. In such a case, the grain deal — and many other things that they need — will end for them,” Medvedev wrote Sunday on Telegram.

Grain deal

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the U.N. and Turkey last July, enables the vital export of grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports onto world markets through the joint inspection of vessels at a facility in Istanbul.

Ukraine is the world’s fifth biggest grain producer, and around 28 million tons have been exported under the deal since July. Its termination could have a devastating impact amid a global food crisis, said Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the London-based Center for Global Development.

“If the Black Sea deal isn’t renewed and Ukraine can’t export, then I expect to see food commodity prices to increase substantially again,” Mitchell told The Associated Press.

Professor Stephen Flynn, founding director of the Global Resilience Institute at Boston’s Northeastern University, said any such price spike would have grave implications for security.

“Anything that disrupts the food supplies has a dramatic effect, not just on potentially putting lives at risk but also fueling instability in parts of the world that already are facing significant violence and disruption,” Flynn told VOA.

May expiration

Moscow had already indicated it may not renew the grain deal beyond its next expiration on May 18, well before the reports of a G-7 export ban. The deal is supposed to be renewable every 120 days. At the last renewal in March, Russia agreed to extend the deal for only 60 days.

The Kremlin says a separate but parallel memorandum of understanding it had agreed with the U.N. to help Russia’s own agriculture sector in the face of Western sanctions is failing.

“Namely, the removal of any obstacles to the export of Russian fertilizers and grain — practically nothing has been done here,” Lavrov said April 20 during a visit to Cuba.

Despite that claim, figures show Russian wheat exports actually doubled in the first two months of 2023 compared to 2022, according to Bloomberg.

Russian demands

Among the Kremlin’s demands are the return of the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT global payment system, the resumption of supplies of farm machinery to Russia, and the lifting of restrictions on insurance and access to ports for Russian ships and cargo.

“Certainly, those demands cannot be fully met, and the Russians know it,” said Flynn. “They’re again trying to leverage food to get all the concessions they can get. They’re doing it at a time when it’s almost certain that we’re going to see an uptick in the conflict, with the Ukrainians potentially trying to really push back the Russian positions.”

Inspections

So, what happens if Russia terminates the grain initiative?

“In theory, if the Russians opt out of doing the inspections, the inspections could be done without them. And the inspections are to confirm that the ships coming in to pick up grains are carrying agricultural products, not weapons,” Flynn said.

“If Russia clearly decides to be aggressive and mine the areas where the ships move, [or] potentially target those ships, then the ships aren’t going to move, and insurance rates would go very high. Decisions would be made by shipowners not to come into the Black Sea. And that would really put a strangle on the flow of grains,” Flynn told VOA.

UN response

The U.N. has also urged Russia to extend the deal.

“Our message is clear: We urge all involved to meet their responsibilities to ensure that vessels continue to move smoothly and safely in the interest of global food security. … The positive humanitarian impact all over the world of the initiative is evident and not limited to its exports to specific low-income countries. It’s in everyone’s interest to keep it going and to work within the agreed-to policy procedures,” Stéphane Dujarric, spokesperson for U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, told reporters on April 12.

G-7 agriculture ministers meeting in Miyazaki, Japan, called for the grain deal to be extended.

“We condemn Russia’s attempts to use food as a means of destabilization and as [a] tool of geopolitical coercion and reiterate our commitment to acting in solidarity and supporting those most affected by Russia’s weaponization of food,” the ministers said in an official communiqué issued April 23.
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Russia has threatened to scrap an initiative that enables the safe export of grain from Ukrainian Black Sea ports to the world market. The threat comes after members of the Group of Seven leading industrial nations warned they may impose further sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Henry Ridgwell reports.
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